Research in education and behavioral sciences often involves the use of latent variable models that are related to indicators, as well as related to covariates or outcomes. Such models are subject to interpretational confounding, which occurs when fitting the model with covariates or outcomes alters the results for the measurement model. This has…

Predicting student performance using educational data is a significant area of machine learning research. However, class imbalance in datasets and the challenge of developing interpretable models can hinder accuracy. This study compares different variations of the Synthetic Minority Oversampling Technique (SMOTE) combined with classification…

This contribution deals with effect measures for covariates in ordinal data models to address the interpretation of the results on the extreme categories of the scales, evaluate possible response styles, and motivate collapsing of extreme categories. It provides a simpler interpretation of the influence of the covariates on the probability of the…

Learning to interpret data in context is an important educational outcome. To assess students' attainment of this outcome, it is necessary to examine the interplay between their contextual and statistical reasoning. We describe a research method designed to do so. The method draws upon Toulmin's (1958, 2003) model of argumentation for the first…

High dropout rate exists universally in massive open online courses (MOOCs) due to the separation of teachers and learners in space and time. Dropout prediction using the machine learning method is an extremely important prerequisite to identify potential at-risk learners to improve learning. It has attracted much attention and there have emerged…

Multivariate count data is ubiquitous in many areas of research including the physical, biological, and social sciences. These data are traditionally modeled with the Dirichlet Multinomial distribution (DM). A new, more flexible Dirichlet-Tree Multinomial (DTM) model is gaining in popularity. Here, we consider Bayesian DTM regression models. Our…

Grounded within current reform recommendations and built upon Giere's views (1986, 1999) on model-based science, we propose an alternative approach to science education which we refer to as the "Evidence-Explanation (EE) Continuum." The approach addresses conceptual, epistemological, and social domains of knowledge, and places emphasis…

A version of the classic rotationally resolved infrared (IR) spectrum of a diatomic molecule experiment has been developed using the POGIL framework to more fully engage students in the collection, modeling, analysis, and interpretation of the data. An analysis of the experimental protocol reveals that the POGIL approach actively engages students…

This article introduces the concept of the carrying capacity of data (CCD), defined as an integrated, evaluative judgment of the credibility of specific data-based inferences, informed by quantitative and qualitative analyses, leavened by experience. The sequential process of evaluating the CCD is represented schematically by a framework that can…

Multilevel modeling is commonly used with clustered data, and much emphasis has been placed specifically on the multilevel linear model (MLM). When modeling clustered ordinal data, a multilevel ordinal model with cumulative logit link assuming proportional odds (i.e., multilevel cumulative logit model) is typically used. Depending on the research…

Despite the rising popularity of big data, there is speculation that evaluators have been slow adopters of these new statistical approaches. Several possible reasons have been offered for why this is the case: ethical concerns, institutional capacity, and evaluator capacity and values. In this method note, we address one of these barriers and aim…

Data reasoning is an essential component of scientific reasoning, as a component of evidence evaluation. In this paper, we outline a model of scientific data reasoning that describes how data sensemaking underlies data reasoning. Data sensemaking, a relatively automatic process rooted in perceptual mechanisms that summarize large quantities of…

Permafrost is any soil or surface deposit in an Arctic or alpine region at some depth below the surface at which the temperature has remained below zero degrees Celsius (32 degrees Fahrenheit) continuously for a long period of time. The amount of carbon dioxide and methane stored in permafrost is nearly twice the amount in the atmosphere and, as…

Technology-based, open-ended learning environments (OELEs) can capture detailed information of students' interactions as they work through a task or solve a problem embedded in the environment. This information, in the form of log data, has the potential to provide important insights about the practices adopted by students for scientific inquiry…

This study focuses on the problem that the process of building learning habits has not been clearly described. Therefore, we aim to extract the stages of learning habits from log data. We propose a data model to extract stages of learning habits based on the transtheoretical model and apply the model to the learning logs of self-directed extensive…