Survey respondents' probabilistic expectations are now widely used in many fields to study risk perceptions, decision-making processes, and behavior. Researchers have developed several methods to account for the fact that the probability of an event may be more ambiguous for some respondents than others, but few prior studies have empirically…

Causal considerations must be relevant for those making decisions. Whether to bring an umbrella or leave it at home depends on the causal consequences of these options. However, most current decision theories do not address causal reasoning. Here, the authors propose a causal model theory of choice based on causal Bayes nets. The critical ideas…

A point of view is presented concerning the psychological concept of subjective probability, both to study its relation to the corresponding mathematical and philosophical concepts and to provide a framework for the rigorous investigation of problems unique to psychology. In order to do this the empirical implications of axiom systems for…

In studies of probability discounting, the reduction in the value of an outcome as a result of its degree of uncertainty is calculated. Decision making studies suggest two issues with probability that may play a role in data obtained in probability discounting studies. The first issue involves the reduction of risk aversion via subdivision of…

This paper briefly reviews how subjects enhance performance by favoring some stimuli over others. The author calls the mechanism by which this is achieved "expectancy", a generic term including preparatory set, behavioral hypotheses, orienting reflex, and anticipatory goal responses. Temporal and event expectancy are contrasted. Verbal prediction…

This survey attempted to obtain data on the probability of improving student achievement when a new instructional program is implemented in an elementary school. The purpose of estimating the variable probability of improving student achievement was for use in the specification of a decision model whose purpose is to rank educational goals in…

The paper presents a review of literature on warnings of social crises and applies the literature to selected crises predicted in America's future. It is intended for use by futurists and policy makers as they devise ways to help society cope with crises. Warnings are interpreted as combining statement of a problem with proposal of a course of…

Expectancy theory and decision theory research predicting occupational preference and choice were reviewed to assess the usefulness of such approaches. Each investigation produced substantial support for the use of such models suggesting that both theories can provide practical insights for occupational guidance and counseling. While theoretical,…