Dealing with uncertainty is a critical part of human decision-making and confidence reflects one's belief about the relative likelihood that various outcomes occur when making decision under uncertainty. Unfortunately, confidence often deviates from the actual quality of the decision, leading to under- or over-confidence. Calibration, the…

Suggests decision making techniques that can be used to estimate the consequences of choosing alternative courses of action, to select an optimum strategy, or to determine how sensitive predicted outcomes are to particular assumptions. Microcomputer use, quantitative techniques, and examples involving item reordering and adoption of word…

Overview of activities and issues that face library administrators considering automation emphasizes acquisition of turnkey systems. Discussion covers reasons for automating, options available, major marketplace issues, keys to a successful automation project, the Request for Information, the Request for Proposal, evaluation techniques, the…

This essay illustrates a technique for reducing the risks of capital investment decisions involving considerable sums for advanced technologies by considering its application to a problem that arises frequently in selection of automated library systems. Incomplete information, using available information, selecting a system, and consultants are…