We present an instructional approach to teaching causal inference using Bayesian networks and "do"-Calculus, which requires less prerequisite knowledge of statistics than existing approaches and can be consistently implemented in beginner to advanced levels courses. Moreover, this approach aims to address the central question in causal…

Mike Shaughnessy is Professor Emeritus of Mathematics and Statistics at Portland State University in Oregon. He served as co-chair for the Board for the Special Interest Group for Research in Mathematics Education of the American Educational Research Association from 2005-2007. A member of the Board of Directors of the National Council of Teachers…

According to Bayesian theories in psychology and neuroscience, minds and brains are (near) optimal in solving a wide range of tasks. We challenge this view and argue that more traditional, non-Bayesian approaches are more promising. We make 3 main arguments. First, we show that the empirical evidence for Bayesian theories in psychology is weak.…

We formalize and provide tests of a set of logical-rule models for predicting perceptual classification response times (RTs) and choice probabilities. The models are developed by synthesizing mental-architecture, random-walk, and decision-bound approaches. According to the models, people make independent decisions about the locations of stimuli…

In building intelligent tutoring systems, it is critical to be able to understand and diagnose student responses in interactive problem solving. However, building this understanding into a computer-based intelligent tutor is a time-intensive process usually conducted by subject experts. Much of this time is spent in building production rules that…

Conditionals in natural language are central to reasoning and decision making. A theoretical proposal called the Ramsey test implies the conditional probability hypothesis: that the subjective probability of a natural language conditional, P(if p then q), is the conditional subjective probability, P(q [such that] p). We report three experiments on…

The development of game theory was a response to a need to understand human decision making processes in situations of incomplete or imperfect information. By reducing decision making situations to probability game systems, it is possible to analyze and test various competitive strategies that maximize wins and minimize losses. Although game…

The IADIS CELDA 2012 Conference intention was to address the main issues concerned with evolving learning processes and supporting pedagogies and applications in the digital age. There had been advances in both cognitive psychology and computing that have affected the educational arena. The convergence of these two disciplines is increasing at a…