The recent popularity of models that capture the dynamic coevolution of both network structure and behavior has driven the need for summary indices to assess the adequacy of these models to reproduce dynamic properties of scientific or practical importance. Whereas there are several existing indices for assessing the ability of the model to…

This study examined the diagnostic accuracy associated with decision making as is typically conducted with curriculum-based measurement (CBM) approaches to progress monitoring. Using previously published estimates of the standard errors of estimate associated with CBM, 20,000 progress-monitoring data sets were simulated to model student reading…

The future of education is human expertise and artificial intelligence working in conjunction, a revolution that will change the education as we know it. The Intelligent Tutoring System is a key component of this future. A quantitative measurement of efficacies of practice to heterogeneous learners is the cornerstone of building an effective…

Most decision analysis techniques are not taught at higher education institutions. Leaders, project managers and procurement agents in industry have strong technical knowledge, and it is crucial for them to apply this knowledge at the right time to make critical decisions. There are uncertainties, problems, and risks involved in business…

Bayesian techniques have become increasingly present in the social sciences, fueled by advances in computer speed and the development of user-friendly software. In this paper, we forward the use of Bayesian Asymmetric Regression (BAR) to monitor intervention responsiveness when using Curriculum-Based Measurement (CBM) to assess oral reading…

Decision making in most universities is taught within the conventional OR/MS (Operations Research/Management Science) paradigm. This paradigm is known to be "hard" since it is consisted of mathematical tools, and normally suitable for solving structured problems. In complex situations the conventional OR/MS paradigm proves to be…

A dominant theme in modeling human perceptual judgments is that sensory neural activity is summed or integrated until a critical bound is reached. Such models predict that, in general, the shape of response time distributions change across conditions, although in practice, this shape change may be subtle. An alternative view is that response time…

We develop semiparametric Bayesian Thurstonian models for analyzing repeated choice decisions involving multinomial, multivariate binary or multivariate ordinal data. Our modeling framework has multiple components that together yield considerable flexibility in modeling preference utilities, cross-sectional heterogeneity and parameter-driven…

Develops models to systematically forecast the tendency of an educational administrator in charge of personnel selection processes to shift from one decision strategy to another under generally stable environmental conditions. Urges further research on these processes by educational planners. (JF)

Focuses on three management tools--the Delphi technique, Bayesian statistics, and Monte Carlo simulation--in order to simulate a problem-solving/decision-making situation with which an educational administrator may be faced. (Author)

Preference orderings among a set of options may depend on the elicitation method (e.g., choice or pricing); these preference reversals challenge traditional decision theories. Previous attempts to explain these reversals have relied on allowing utility of the options to change across elicitation methods by changing the decision weights, the…

Changes in information retention resulting from changes in reliability and number of intervals in scale construction were studied to provide quantitative information to help in decisions about choosing intervals. Information retention reached a maximum when the number of intervals was about 8 or more and reliability was near 1.0. (SLD)

A stochastic multidimensional unfolding (MDU) procedure is presented to represent individual differences in phased or sequential decision processes spatially. A Monte Carlo analysis demonstrates estimation proficiency and the appropriateness of the proposed model selection heuristic, and an application to capture awareness, consideration, and…

In this article, the author discusses the use in policy analysis of models that incorporate uncertainty. He believes that all models should consider incorporating uncertainty, but that at the same time it is important to understand that sampling variability is not usually the dominant driver of uncertainty in policy analyses. He also argues that…