Several researchers have called for schools to interpret universal screening results using posterior probabilities. Following this recommendation could require schools to move away from direct-route, single-measure screening unless base rates of risk fall within a narrow range. In this descriptive study, we investigated two questions surrounding…

Several researchers have called for schools to interpret universal screening results using posterior probabilities. Following this recommendation could require schools to move away from direct-route, single-measure screening unless base rates of risk fall within a narrow range. In this descriptive study, we investigated two questions surrounding…

The perception ability has attained much recognition in the identification of cognitive processing and decision-making in autism spectrum disorder (ASD) individuals. However, the prior studies have subjectively worked on perception ability using conditioning paradigms that can be intolerable for ASD individuals. The present paper quantitatively…

Risky decisions are often characterized by (a) imprecision about consequences and their likelihoods that can be reduced by information collection, and by (b) unavoidable background risk. This article addresses both aspects by eliciting risk attitude, prudence, and temperance in decisions from description and decisions from experience. The results…

Probabilistic thinking is a structure of thinking characterized by scenarios that allow one to explore reality. Therefore, the characteristic of probabilistic thinking is problem-oriented that will occur in a future full of uncertainty. Nevertheless, few studies examine the students' probabilistic thinking level based on the Stress Tolerance…

This article describes the adaptation and use of the Monopoly® board game as a simple simulator to help introduce the principles of probability and risk. It focusses on teaching experiences in an undergraduate business program and offers a new approach to teaching probability and risk with dice to produce a collaborative simulated gaming…

The COVID-19 pandemic drew new attention to the role of school boards in the U.S. In this paper, we examine school districts' choices of learning modality -- whether and when to offer in-person, virtual, or hybrid instruction -- over the course of the 2020-21 pandemic school year. The analysis takes advantage of granular weekly data on learning…

We estimate the percentage of eligible students who do not take up their federal need-based student financial aid entitlements in a microsimulation model for the German Socio-Economic Panel Study 2002--2013. We find that about 40% of the eligible low-income students do not take up their entitlements. Non-take-up is inversely and rather…

Survey respondents' probabilistic expectations are now widely used in many fields to study risk perceptions, decision-making processes, and behavior. Researchers have developed several methods to account for the fact that the probability of an event may be more ambiguous for some respondents than others, but few prior studies have empirically…

Anxiety prepares an organism for dealing with threats by recruiting cognitive resources to process information about the threat, and by engaging physiological systems to prepare a response. Heightened trait anxiety is associated with biases in both these processes: high trait-anxious individuals tend to report heightened risk perceptions, and…

The value of an outcome is affected both by the delay until its receipt (delay discounting) and by the likelihood of its receipt (probability discounting). Despite being well-described by the same hyperboloid function, delay and probability discounting involve fundamentally different processes, as revealed, for example, by the differential effects…

Leveraging a sample of more than 198,000 adult entrepreneurs, both currently involved in the startup of a business or formerly involved in business creation, this study investigates the perceptual, societal impression, economic, and demographic variables that are predictive with an individual's decision to engage in entrepreneurial activity.…

The majority of adolescent risk taking occurs in the presence of peers, and recent research suggests that the presence of peers may alter how the potential rewards and costs of a decision are valuated or perceived. The current study further explores this notion by investigating how peer observation affects adolescent risk taking when the…

In order to be treated quantitatively, subjective gains and losses (utilities/disutilities) must be psychologically measured. If legitimate comparisons are sought between them, measurement must be at least interval level, with a common unit. If comparisons of absolute magnitudes across gains and losses are further sought, as in standard…

Previous research has revealed that people choose to aim toward an "optimal" endpoint when faced with a movement task with externally imposed payoffs. This optimal endpoint is modeled based on the magnitude of the payoffs and the probability of hitting the different payoff regions (endpoint variability). Endpoint selection, however, has only been…