To address response style or bias in rating scales, forced-choice items are often used to request that respondents rank their attitudes or preferences among a limited set of options. The rating scales used by raters to render judgments on ratees' performance also contribute to rater bias or errors; consequently, forced-choice items have recently…

Students are typically introduced to probability through calculating simple events like flipping a coin. While these calculations can be done by hand, more complex probabilistic events, both in class and in the real world, require the use of computers. In this paper, we introduce a new tool--an R shiny web app and associated CRAN package based on…

Past research indicates that individuals respond adaptively to contextual factors in multiattribute choice tasks. Yet it remains unclear how this adaptation is cognitively governed. In this article, empirically testable implementations of two prominent competing theoretical frameworks are developed and compared across two multiattribute choice…

This article describes the adaptation and use of the Monopoly® board game as a simple simulator to help introduce the principles of probability and risk. It focusses on teaching experiences in an undergraduate business program and offers a new approach to teaching probability and risk with dice to produce a collaborative simulated gaming…

Grounded or embodied cognition research has employed body-object interaction (BOI; e.g., Pexman et al., 2019) ratings to investigate sensorimotor effects during language processing. We investigated relationships between BOI ratings and nonarbitrary statistical mappings between words' phonological forms and their syntactic category in English;…

Single-period inventory models with uncertain demand are very well known in the business analytics community. Typically, such models are rule-based functions, or sets of functions, of one decision variable (order quantity) and one random variable (demand). In academics, the models are taught selectively and usually not completely. Students are…

We estimate the percentage of eligible students who do not take up their federal need-based student financial aid entitlements in a microsimulation model for the German Socio-Economic Panel Study 2002--2013. We find that about 40% of the eligible low-income students do not take up their entitlements. Non-take-up is inversely and rather…

This paper is about performance assessment in serious games. We conceive serious gaming as a process of player-lead decision taking. Starting from combinatorics and item-response theory we provide an analytical model that makes explicit to what extent observed player performances (decisions) are blurred by chance processes (guessing behaviors). We…

In this rejoinder, von Eye and DeShon discuss the decision strategies proposed in their original article ("Directional Dependence in Developmental Research," this issue), as well as the ones proposed by the authors of the commentary (Pornprasertmanit and Little, "Determining Directional Dependency in Causal Associations," this issue). In addition,…

The ability to adjust bias, or preference for an option, allows for great behavioral flexibility. Decision bias is also important for understanding cognition as it can provide useful information about underlying cognitive processes. Previous work suggests that bias can be adjusted in 2 primary ways: by adjusting how the stimulus under…

Personnel selection shows an enduring need for short stand-alone tests consisting of, say, 5 to 15 items. Despite their efficiency, short tests are more vulnerable to measurement error than longer test versions. Consequently, the question arises to what extent reducing test length deteriorates decision quality due to increased impact of…

This paper estimates risk reductions for each layer of security designed to prevent commercial passenger airliners from being commandeered by terrorists, kept under control for some time, and then crashed into specific targets. Probabilistic methods are used to characterize the uncertainty of rates of deterrence, detection, and disruption, as well…

Recently, researchers have investigated differences in decision making based on description and experience. We address the issue of when experience-based judgments of probability are more accurate than are those based on description. If description is well understood ("transparent") and experience is misleading ("wicked"), it…

Professional psychologists are often confronted with the task of making binary decisions about individuals, such as predictions about future behavior or employee selection. Test users familiar with linear models and Bayes's theorem are likely to assume that the accuracy of decisions is consistently improved by combination of outcomes across valid…

Diagnostic hypothesis-generation processes are ubiquitous in human reasoning. For example, clinicians generate disease hypotheses to explain symptoms and help guide treatment, auditors generate hypotheses for identifying sources of accounting errors, and laypeople generate hypotheses to explain patterns of information (i.e., data) in the…