Several researchers have called for schools to interpret universal screening results using posterior probabilities. Following this recommendation could require schools to move away from direct-route, single-measure screening unless base rates of risk fall within a narrow range. In this descriptive study, we investigated two questions surrounding…

Several researchers have called for schools to interpret universal screening results using posterior probabilities. Following this recommendation could require schools to move away from direct-route, single-measure screening unless base rates of risk fall within a narrow range. In this descriptive study, we investigated two questions surrounding…

A Markov model for predicting performance on criterion-referenced tests is presented,. The model is expressed mathematically as a function of transition matrix, a current state vector, and a future state vector. The matrix is defined in terms of conditional probabilities, i.e., the probability of making a transition to a specific future…

The Mastery-Learning test model is extended. Methods for estimating prior probabilities are described. The use of an adjustment matrix to transform a probability of mastery measure and empirical methods for estimating adjustment matrix parameters are derived. Adjustment matrices are interpreted as indicators of instructional effectiveness and as…