Previous research has suggested that infants are able to distinguish between possible and impossible events and make basic probabilistic inferences. However, much of this research has focused on children's intuitions about past events for which the outcome is already determined but unknown. Here, we investigated children's ability to use…

Predicting the future is now in the hands of K12 administrators. While for years districts have collected thousands of pieces of student data, educators have been using them only for data-driven decision-making or formative assessments, which give a "rear-view" perspective only. Now, using predictive analysis--the pulling together of data over…

This article introduces "expertise-based training" (XBT) as an instructional design theory that draws on the theories, findings, and methods of expertise research in order to create instructional strategies that can hasten the development of advanced learners into experts. The central tenants of XBT are: 1) Key cognitive sub-skills that…

Mathematical models have been used extensively to describe the judgmental processes and strategies of individual decision makers, but rarely have the procedures been extended to describe the judgmental strategies of decision-making groups. The present study attempts to extend the procedures for the purposes of describing group decision-making…

This textbook for teaching reasoning processes and decision making under conditions of uncertainty is written at an introductory level. Based on a translation of a Hebrew book, the text is intended for the general training of military and civilian personnel required to process, sort, and/or evaluate incomplete, unreliable information. Potential…

Developed and edited by the National Association of College and University Business Officers' (NACUBO's) Accounting Principles Council, this guidebook, written by highly experienced, seasoned college and university leaders, is designed to help readers make sense of today's world and provide the right tools to make the right decisions. The book,…

Reports on the techniques and approaches to planning actually being used by corporate strategists. Provides information concerning the survey and data on which this article is based, the planning process in approximately 400 business firms, and the use of two planning tools -- outside consultants and computers/mathematical models. (Author/WM)

Describes a new approach for increasing teaching effectiveness in the area of social studies by helping teachers recognize and nurture multiple talents in all children (Talents Unlimited). Objectives of the approach are to develop students' productive thinking, communication, forecasting, decision making, and planning skills. (DB)

The paper presents a review of literature on warnings of social crises and applies the literature to selected crises predicted in America's future. It is intended for use by futurists and policy makers as they devise ways to help society cope with crises. Warnings are interpreted as combining statement of a problem with proposal of a course of…

Prediction is made of a change in the role of the teacher from dispenser of knowledge to a learning facilitator and an "anticipatory design science" specialist. A description is given of a workshop seminar focusing on the process of designing educational futures so that teachers can gain direct experience with policy study and formation. This…

The paper discusses curriculum change in American education and describes a social studies curriculum model intended to help high school students become better decision makers. The paper is presented in eight sections. Section I identifies educational programs which have been implemented in response to crisis situations. Among these are sex…

This guide is intended to introduce educators to the kinds of instructional changes necessary to provide students with adequate preparation for the changing world of the future. The guide is made up of three units divided into eight independent modules that can be used in individual study, workshops, university courses, and so on. These modules…

How successfully a student responds to the stresses of college life depends on several factors, including the time of onset, the degree of perceived threat, and the student's repertoire of coping skills. This study was conducted to determine if personal adaptability or ego-strength in college students could be predicted from knowledge of…

The paper considers whether precise control over the actions, thoughts, emotions, and desires of individuals is desirable. New technological methods for controlling human behavior enable systematic manipulation of people and promise an even greater degree of manipulation in the near future. Arguments for and against behavior control are presented.…

The Delphi technique is a questionnaire method for organizing and shaping opinion through feedback. Although Delphi was originally intended as a tool for scientific and technological forecasting, its more promising educational application appears to be as (1) a method for studying the process of thinking about the future, (2) a pedagogical or…