Presents a model to assist in long-range forecasting of enrollments in institutions of higher education. (WD)

Implementing an enrollment projection methodology and a planning methodology in a school district is often a complex problem because many possibilities exist. The purpose of this study is to demonstrate that successful research techniques used by some school districts can instruct other districts about methods and aims to pursue or avoid in…

Analysis of demographic trends suggests that, despite a recent rise in numbers of births, total school enrollment in North Carolina may continue to decline into the 1990s. (Author/MLF)

Summary of the discussion document, issued by the Department of Education and Science and the Scottish Education Department, that considers the implications of declining enrollment in primary and secondary schools in Britain for the pattern of higher education over the next 15 years. Policy options are explored. (Author/JMD)

Discusses the Simu School component in Santa Clara County, California, which focuses on communities in areas that are changing from rural to urban characteristics and on declining enrollments. (Author/IRT)

An important part of the analysis of the expected effects of institutional closure is estimation of redistribution of students attending the closed school. How coefficient estimates from models of enrollment demand can be used to predict the alternative attendance choices of students enrolled at the closed school is discussed. (Author/MLW)

Enrollment declines during the next 15 years in the college-age group, especially in the country's northeastern quadrant, are discussed. In the northeastern region, enrollment declines are likely to be twice the national rate. A model, designed to reflect what is likely to happen, is provided. (MLW)

Achieving enrollment goals continues to be a major administrative concern in higher education. Enrollment management can be assisted through the use of computerized planning and forecast models. Although commercially available Markov transition type curve fitting models have been developed and used, a microcomputer-based decision planning model…

A management of decline approach is contrasted with a model based on strategic planning and contingency budgeting for higher education. The strategic planning model is seen as a broader, more effective approach based on an assessment of what outcomes could be if enrollment strategies were effective in attracting students. (MLW)

The history of a higher education demand assessment program in Manitoba is outlined, beginning with a sharp dip in enrollment in 1970. A three-year project was begun with three snapshot surveys of grade 12 decision-making in February, May, and June. The second year involved two snapshots, and the third used only one. During this time, attitudes…

An analysis of Great Britain's higher education system, primarily between 1981 and 1994, considers the possible implication of demographic trends and how that pattern may change over the next 15 years. The purpose of the paper is to direct public attention to the issues and encourage debate rather than present discrete policy options. Planning…

A long-range financial planning model was developed by the staff of the Minnesota Higher Education Coordinating Board to explore the issues and problems facing the financing of Minnesota postsecondary education. The model was designed to determine the extent to which alternative general financing policies and specific funding formulas affect…

Colleges must turn to long-range enrollment planning to ensure proper academic and fiscal management. The Higher Education Finance Research Institute, with the College Board, has developed a model that will allow colleges to test the current scale and scope of their programs against regional projections of their enrollment potential during the…

A highly technical report describes higher education forecasting procedures used by the State Education Department of New York at Albany to project simulated college enrollments for New York State from 1978-1994. Basic components of the projections--generated for full- and part-time undergraduates, full- and part-time graduates, and…

Policy strategies implemented at the State University of New York in response to enrollment decline and financial cutbacks are considered. The following areas are addressed: institutional mission, administrative organization, enrollment plan, method of reallocating resources, a systematic program for staff development, program evaluation,…