Describes how to use demographic studies to project school enrollments. Includes collecting historical enrollment data, contacting the state department of health and vital statistics, selecting an enrollment-projection method, meeting with local planning and construction department officials, determining the age of the community, and performing…

A study of enrollment forecasting procedures in Los Angeles County has yielded data that provide guidelines for making accurate enrollment projections. (WD)

Presents a mathematical model for projecting class cohort sizes for districts and schools via demographic data. The model allows entry of estimates for local preschool data to predict first-grade entrants, which are progressed through the school system. Average retention rates, school apportionments and national demographic projections can be…

Declining enrollment presents educational planners with a new challenge. The prospects of consolidation and reductions require the use of the most effective technical planning procedures available to facilitate effective decisionmaking. (Author)

The actual record of births in the last fifteen years clearly indicates that the size of annual graduating classes from secondary schools will begin to decline by the end of this decade. Such a trend will be a significant environmental characteristic for the higher educational community, inasmuch as graduates from secondary schools comprise the…

DURING THE 20TH CENTURY, DELAWARE'S POPULATION GROWTH HAS PARALLELED THAT OF THE COUNTRY AS A WHOLE, ALTHOUGH THE GROWTH HAS NOT BEEN EVENLY DISTRIBUTED THROUGHOUT THE STATE. NEED FOR EXPANSION OF THE STATE'S HIGHER EDUCATION OPPORTUNITIES WAS INDICATED BY TWO FACTORS--(1) THE TREND IN THE BIRTH RATE, WHICH LED TO A PROJECTION OF A 1975 COLLEGE…

Projections of the size and composition of future student populations are crucial to effective planning in an institution of higher education. Using the mathematical model presented here, future enrollments and degree production can be predicted from admission, transfer, and attrition rates, as well as from administrative policies and current…

A short primer on the first steps toward determining a district's future space needs (how much it will build, renovate, or modernize) -- gauging school district future enrollments. (Author)

Enrollment forecasting is based on six basic environmental assumptions: fertility and birth rates, infant mortality rates, economic conditions, organizational structure and boundaries, organizational and administrative policy, and natural disasters and climatic conditions. The most common mathematical forecasting methods include cohort-survival…

A modified three-step Delphi procedure was used to conduct a series of national studies of futurists regarded by their peers as top experts in agricultural education. The primary objective was to project enrollments in agricultural education programs for the 21st century. Other study objectives were to ascertain whether the Delphi technique could…

A description of the growth and dynamics of the junior college in the United States and a prediction of the limits of this growth based on population and density data. (MB)

Discusses the implications for the future of higher education by examining data concerning demographic factors, growth projections, supply factors, expansion concerns, health care needs, and manpower supplies. (Author/PG)

Various methods by which the responsible officials of colleges and universities might make projections of enrollment for their respective institutions are presented in this report. The point is made that institutional enrollment projection is not a simple assignment. Many factors must be considered, analyzed, and, if possible, controlled in order…

American colleges need to begin preparing now for the very different student population of 2000, whose composition will have far more minority group members than today's, by increasing the minority group leadership in administration and governance. (MSE)

School boards and superintendents should take steps to minimize the community's shock reaction to lower school enrollments, school consolidation, and school closings. (Author)