Pointing out that "trend-demographic" enrollment projections ignore important economic considerations (supply and demand), the author uses a model of educational adaptation, which focuses on the educational characteristics of the active adult population and the wage of educated relative to uneducated labor, to make projections that are compared…

Community colleges are in a good position to obtain reliable long-term forecasts of future demand. An approach developed at Johnson County Community College in Overland Park, Kansas, has enabled the college to assist other community institutions in their parallel planning efforts. (Author/MLF)

Analysis of demographic trends suggests that, despite a recent rise in numbers of births, total school enrollment in North Carolina may continue to decline into the 1990s. (Author/MLF)

Traditionally, the most commonly used methods of forecasting school enrollments have been those that looked to the past for a picture of the future. In restricting the forecaster to projections of past trends, the "percentage survival" technique ignores a host of current trends implicit in a changing society. A second problem with most…

Enrollment declines during the next 15 years in the college-age group, especially in the country's northeastern quadrant, are discussed. In the northeastern region, enrollment declines are likely to be twice the national rate. A model, designed to reflect what is likely to happen, is provided. (MLW)

This paper reports work that studied past and future demographic trends and their impact on education in Florida, and presents a model for studying variables affecting enrollment. Numerous tables and graphs are included. (Author/IRT)

A data-collection model is presented for the gathering of timely information on population demographic characteristics, as well as economic, educational, environmental, and social trends. First, the paper discusses the importance of anticipating internal and external changes and establishing priorities for resource allocation in the design of a…

Because the enrollment question is central to the resolution of a number of issues facing higher education, institutions as well as jurisdictional bodies have become increasingly concerned with the determination of future student demand. However, the changing characteristics of our population indicate the need for a new and somewhat more complex…

Colleges must turn to long-range enrollment planning to ensure proper academic and fiscal management. The Higher Education Finance Research Institute, with the College Board, has developed a model that will allow colleges to test the current scale and scope of their programs against regional projections of their enrollment potential during the…

Two quantitative enrollment projection techniques and the methods used by researchers at the Ohio Board of Regents (OBR) are discussed. Two quantitative approaches that are typically used for enrollment projections are curve-fitting techniques and causal models. Many state forecasters use curve-fitting techniques, a popular approach because only…

The author describes her career development from mathematics instructor to director of institutional research at a large community college. She discusses the impact of mathematics on her career, illustrates her present job by describing three recently completed research projects, and strongly recommends that mathematics instructors encourage some…

This paper examines the changing demographics of American society and the impact of these changes on higher education. Discussions include a historical background of early American demography, the building and expansion of the population base, and census changes through various generations of the baby boom years and beyond. Next, the report…

The third in a series of six reports on higher education in Iowa, this document presents enrollment projections for Iowa postsecondary education institutions from 1978 through 1986. Data were collected from the regents universities, independent colleges, and area colleges throughout the state. A computerized nonprescriptive projection model was…

The effect of enrollment level changes on the long-range future of Western Washington University are investigated. Due to the high rate of Washington state in-migration, declining enrollments are not projected for Western Washington University. The impact of managed enrollment goals was examined to help the university determine the most…