This component of the project attempts to facilitate planning by furnishing models that manage cumbersome and complex data, supply an objectivity that identifies all relationships between elements of the model, and provide a quantitative model allowing for various forecasting techniques that describe the long-range impact of decisions. (Author/IRT)

Personnel at the College of Lake County (CLC) developed a projections model for student enrollment that satisfies the need for information for budget projections and for planning purposes. CLC is a medium-sized suburban community college located north of Chicago. The Enrollment Management Team was asked to create a process to project enrollments…

This paper describes the application of the discrete maximum principle to the problem of the introduction of universal primary education. (Available from Plenum Publishing Corporation, 227 West 17th Street, New York, NY 10011) (Author)

Reliance on enrollment trend models for revenue projections has led to a scenario of alternating overbudgeted and underbudgeted years. A study of a large, public university indicates that time series analysis should be used instead to anticipate the orderly seasonal and cyclical patterns that are visible in a period of moderate trend growth.…

Issues of strategy and statesmanship that characterize the period prior to a decision for a college merger are addressed. Attention is directed to models of private college merger, based on patterns used in the 1970s, and innovations sponsored by foundations in the early 1980s. Factors that increase the chance of a voluntary merger taking place…

The model described in this report is a computer program capable of projecting population, enrollment, teacher supply (within six age classifications); and expenditures and revenues for 10 years for each intermediate unit, the State, and four residence classifications: metropolitan-center city, metropolitan-other, suburban or small community, and…

An analysis of Great Britain's higher education system, primarily between 1981 and 1994, considers the possible implication of demographic trends and how that pattern may change over the next 15 years. The purpose of the paper is to direct public attention to the issues and encourage debate rather than present discrete policy options. Planning…

A long-range financial planning model was developed by the staff of the Minnesota Higher Education Coordinating Board to explore the issues and problems facing the financing of Minnesota postsecondary education. The model was designed to determine the extent to which alternative general financing policies and specific funding formulas affect…

The development and application of a computerized model, designed to stimulate the nation's future educational needs and resources and the disaprities between them, are described. The results of the simulation, reported by region and by type of residential area, allow the following types of projections through 1980: (1) enrollment given…

The use of the cohort-survival method for projecting student enrollments is widely known in educational finance literature; however, the limited information provided by the model impedes planners in making future operational decisions. The cohort-survival method employs historical rates of usage to predict future patterns of usage and produces a…

A set of techniques is presented to assist administrators in forecasting the need for primary and secondary school facilities and in critically evaluating proposals to satisfy that need. The four basic components--enrollment, facility, fiscal, and geographic--presented in EA008632 are adapted for school districts without access to a computer and…

The rising cost of public education and the resulting pressures for higher local property tax rates have caused the financial management of public schools to come under increased scrutiny. This study applies planning programing budgeting systems (PPBS) to school district financial management. A program structure is described that relates all…

A model to estimate higher education enrollments and cost effects of financial aid plans is presented. A combination of the freshman demand and transition models allows the prediction of high school graduates who enter colleges, complete sequential levels of education, and complete degree programs. The freshman demand model is adapted from that of…

Three models for anlayzing the Tuition Advance Fund (TAF) are examined. The three models are: projections by the Institute for Demographic and Economic Studies (IDES), projections by Data Resources, Inc. (DRI), and the Tuition Advance Fund Simulation (TAFSIM) models from Boston University. Analysis of the TAF is based on enrollment, price, and…

A set of techniques is presented to assist administrators in forecasting the need for primary and secondary school facilities and in critically evaluating proposals to satisfy that need. Four basic components allow the analysis required to project future conditions and test alternative proposals. (1) The enrollment component forecasts the number…