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Lichtman, Allan J. – Social Education, 2012
The Keys to the White House is a historically-based system for predicting the result of the popular vote in American presidential elections. The Keys system tracks the big picture of how well the party holding the White House has governed and does not shift with events of the campaign. This model gives specificity to the idea that it is…
Descriptors: Elections, Governance, Federal Government, Political Science
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Lichtman, Allan J. – Social Education, 2008
The Keys are a historically based prediction system that the author developed in collaboration with Russian scientist Volodia Keilis-Borok, an authority on the mathematics of prediction models. The Keys retrospectively account for the winners of the popular vote of every presidential election from 1860 through 1980 and prospectively forecast the…
Descriptors: Prediction, Elections, Presidents
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Lichtman, Allan J. – Social Education, 2000
Asserts that Vice President Al Gore will be elected in 2000 based on the performance of the Clinton administration. Utilizes the key to the White House, 13 true-or-false diagnostic questions stated as propositions. If five or less are false then the party in power wins. (CMK)
Descriptors: Elections, Guidelines, Political Campaigns, Political Issues
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Lichtman, Allan J. – Social Education, 1999
Describes the role of the "Keys to the White House" in predicting future U.S. presidents during political campaigns for office. Explains that the "Keys to the White House" consist of 13 statements favoring the reelection of the incumbent party. Provides a table demonstrating the status of the keys for Election 2000. (CMK)
Descriptors: Elections, Guidelines, Political Campaigns, Political Issues
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Lichtman, Allan J. – Social Education, 1996
Outlines and discusses a system for predicting the winner in presidential elections. The system consists of 13 statements favoring reelection for the incumbent party. Five or fewer false statements indicate an incumbent win. Predicts President Clinton winning the 1996 election. Includes tables showing veracity of 13 keys in historical elections.…
Descriptors: Citizenship Education, Civics, Elections, Evaluation Criteria