Compares the accuracy of various student test score projection techniques, including idiographic analysis, standard score method, regression analysis, and a differential equation growth model. Concludes with an overview of the problems of projecting student test scores and suggests a stochastic procedure based on Bayesian analysis for educational…

Classification accuracies of models for predicting later high school dropouts from data available in student records for grades 4 through 8 were examined for 503 dropouts and 282 persisters (nondropouts) in Florida. Separate prediction models for each grade level have practical importance; implications for dropout prediction are discussed. (SLD)

An overview of national and international research on school effectiveness is provided in this paper. Following an introduction, the first section examines some national studies, with a focus on the differences in empirical evidence for effective school factors. These studies are similar in that they are outcome-oriented, seek factors of school…

The Learning Potential Assessment Device and Instrumental Enrichment are two much needed improvements in education. Used in tandem, they rectify previous problems of testing and teaching by providing an unbiased assessment device which does not rely on labels for categories of learners. (VM)

This paper focuses on the notion of human learners as being structure-determined. Alternate views of educational phenomena and educational research of G. Cziko (1989), D. Bohm and F. D. Peat (1987), H. Maturana and F. Varela (1980, 1987), and S. E. Pirie and T. Kieren (1989, 1990) are considered. A mathematical theory of chaos, random…

The development of new statistical methods of log-linear models by Leo Goodman has led to major advances in the statistical analysis of categorical data. Goodman's logit analysis, (the simplest form of log-linear models) can be applied in evaluation studies to estimate the "main effects" and "interaction effects" of categorical…

Directors of Research and Evaluation in school districts were surveyed about their methods in making school enrollment projections. The questionnaire covered school district size, minority enrollment, staff responsibility for performing projections, acceptable levels of accuracy, methodology used, special considerations, and use of the data. Fifty…

This report describes the analyses of student participation in two school nutrition programs, the School Breakfast Program (SBP) and the National School Lunch Program (NSLP). Data were collected from students and their families during the 1983-84 school year as part of the National Evaluation of the School Nutrition Programs (NESNP). Each program…

Normative data reported by publishers of the California Achievement Test, the Comprehensive Tests of Basic Skills, and the SRA Assessment Survey were used to illustrate a procedure for specifying goals for Title I programs in terms of normal curve equivalent (NCE) gains. The procedure was based on the amount of growth reflected in student reading…

A survey was conducted of the families and teachers of 1009 students with severe disabilities from five states, to identify factors associated with their integrated educational placement. The questionnaires were designed to measure 19 variables which integration literature suggests are predictive of integrated placement. Logistic regression…

Major findings and prediction models resulting from longitudinal research are presented. Discussed are the study design; variables, trends, and profiles; a follow-up study; and implications and policy recommendations. A summary model designed to explain this phenomenon is given. (CW)

Since a great number of variables influence future educational outcomes, forecasting possible trends is a complex task. One such model, the cross-impact matrix, has been developed. The use of this matrix in forecasting future values of social indicators of educational outcomes is described. Variables associated with educational outcomes are used…

This manual addresses the Comprehensive System of Personnel Development (CSPD) requirement of Public Law 94-142. It presents model procedures for the collection of data necessary to project personnel needs in special education. Implementation of the model will identify: areas of education which show need for additional teachers as well as areas of…

In pursuit of creating a culture that would contribute to the successful learning outcomes envisioned by the superintendent of the Beaufort County, South Carolina, School District, the author returned to her roots and experiences in organizational development. She discovered an article about McBassi and Co., an agency specializing in the…

This manual presents procedures for collecting data to project personnel needs in the field of special education, addressing in part the Comprehensive System of Personnel Development requirements of Public Law 94-142. Implementation of the procedures identifies: areas of education that show need for additional teachers as well as areas of surplus;…