Texas and other states that border with Mexico have been leading indicators of public school system trends that may manifest themselves in other areas of the United States in the decade to come. Such manifestations of these trends are likely to have both policy and practice implications. Descriptive statistics and longitudinal data from the…

Three studies are reported. The first two were conducted with students at a postsecondary program for the deaf. The third study was conducted in 20 residential and day programs for the deaf. Projections are given for the likely activities of these students following high school. (Author)

In a large metropolitan research university, multiple enrollment models are required to fulfill the needs of the many constituents and planning horizons. In addition, the method of predicting enrollment in a growth environment differs from that of universities in a stable environment. Three models for predicting enrollment are discussed, with a…

A modified three-step Delphi procedure was used to conduct a series of national studies of futurists regarded by their peers as top experts in agricultural education. The primary objective was to project enrollments in agricultural education programs for the 21st century. Other study objectives were to ascertain whether the Delphi technique could…

The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate a solution to the annual problem of school district grade-wise enrollment projection. From the mathematical forecasting models considered, the exponential smoothing model is chosen and criteria for its evaluation specified. The model is then applied to data from three different school districts, and the…

The merits of double exponential smoothing are discussed relative to other types of pattern-based enrollment forecasting methods. The basic assumptions and formulas for its use are outlined. The difficulties associated with selecting an appropriate weight factor are discussed, and the potential effect on prediction results is illustrated.…

Personnel at the College of Lake County (CLC) developed a projections model for student enrollment that satisfies the need for information for budget projections and for planning purposes. CLC is a medium-sized suburban community college located north of Chicago. The Enrollment Management Team was asked to create a process to project enrollments…

Enrollment management deals with the quantity of students an institution enrolls; student body composition; and the quality of students, services, and programs. The enrollment growth in American higher education institutions has ceased and a decline is expected due to: (1) lack of financial aid; (2) a prosperous economy; (3) a less promising job…

The merits of double exponential smoothing are discussed relative to other types of pattern-based enrollment forecasting methods. The difficulties associated with selecting an appropriate weight factor are discussed, and their potential effects on prediction results are illustrated. Two methods for objectively selecting the "best" weight…

A model and implementation process is presented for projecting student headcount and credit hour and contact hour enrollment for each academic area and all areas aggregated by semester and fiscal year for each campus of Montgomery College, Maryland. The projection model is suggested as a managerial tool to assist the college's management to…

To establish a procedure for use in examining characteristics of future participants in adult education, a study focused on one characteristic--the highest level of education completed among participants in adult education activities. The process followed was to obtain reports from the National Center for Education Statitstics (NCES) (an official…

As enrollments continue to decline, principals face new staffing problems, especially problems connected with reduction in force. One forecasting method useful for determining if enrollment will decline is the Keough Indicator Survey Scale, which contains questions about key community characterisitics. Administrators experiencing declining…

The use of subjective probability as a theoretical model for enrollment forecasting is proposed, and the results of an application of subjective probability to enrollment forecasting at the University of Toledo are reported. Subjective probability can be used as an enrollment forecasting technique for both headcount and full-time equivalent using…

Professors of rhetoric are viewing with concern the prospect of 15 years of declining enrollment in higher education. It has been speculated that the decline in enrollment will be less severe in large, well-established, urban institutions with low tuition, a clear mission or well-defined public image, well-planned modest growth, established…

The concept of fuzzy time series is introduced and used to forecast the enrollment of a university. Fuzzy time series, an aspect of fuzzy set theory, forecasts enrollment using a first-order time-invariant model. To evaluate the model, the conventional linear regression technique is applied and the predicted values obtained are compared to the…