Institutional staff such as enrollment managers, business officers, and institutional researchers are often asked to predict enrollments. Developing any predictive model can be intimidating, particularly when there is no textbook to follow. This paper provides a practical framework for generating enrollment projection options and for evaluating…

This study developed statistical models to forecast international undergraduate student enrollment at a Midwest university. The authors constructed a Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average model with input variables to estimate future enrollment. This model reflected enrollment patterns by semester through highlighting seasonality.…

Higher education in Australia is undergoing a comprehensive reform with particular focus on higher levels of attainment by increasing access to university study for Australians from all backgrounds. To support the government's ambition of around 217,000 additional graduates by 2025, it has committed to removing caps and funding student places on…

The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate a solution to the annual problem of school district grade-wise enrollment projection. From the mathematical forecasting models considered, the exponential smoothing model is chosen and criteria for its evaluation specified. The model is then applied to data from three different school districts, and the…

This report is concerned with the development of a model for projecting the enrollments of The Pennsylvania State University by simulating the flow of students through the campuses and colleges of which the institution is composed. Because it concerns a twenty-two campus system of a single university, it not only constitutes an institutional…

A review of the literature concerning local school roll forecasting describes the theoretical model common to most local education agency (LEA) forecasts, identifies a variety of issues relevant to this area of LEA planning, and suggests some opportunities for improvement in LEA school roll forecasting. (Author/CB)

Pointing out that "trend-demographic" enrollment projections ignore important economic considerations (supply and demand), the author uses a model of educational adaptation, which focuses on the educational characteristics of the active adult population and the wage of educated relative to uneducated labor, to make projections that are compared…

Community colleges are in a good position to obtain reliable long-term forecasts of future demand. An approach developed at Johnson County Community College in Overland Park, Kansas, has enabled the college to assist other community institutions in their parallel planning efforts. (Author/MLF)

With the growing concern for the development of good mathematical education planning models, few states have developed the type of enrollment projection systems that they would consider to be ideal. The primary objectives of this research project were to develop, construct, and document an enrollment forecasting system for use by the Ohio Board of…

A smoothing model was applied to the transition ratios of the number of university students in successive time periods. Each application was conditional on the department and year of student. The results may be applied to any level of aggregation in the institution. (Author/LBH)

Reliance on enrollment trend models for revenue projections has led to a scenario of alternating overbudgeted and underbudgeted years. A study of a large, public university indicates that time series analysis should be used instead to anticipate the orderly seasonal and cyclical patterns that are visible in a period of moderate trend growth.…

This paper examines the decline in Illinois public school enrollment that began in 1971-72 and attempts to predict the likely duration and severity of the decline. Much of the paper discusses the use of two different models for calculating enrollment projections from 1974 through 1985. The grade-by-grade model formulates enrollment projections…

Summary of the discussion document, issued by the Department of Education and Science and the Scottish Education Department, that considers the implications of declining enrollment in primary and secondary schools in Britain for the pattern of higher education over the next 15 years. Policy options are explored. (Author/JMD)

Discusses the Simu School component in Santa Clara County, California, which focuses on communities in areas that are changing from rural to urban characteristics and on declining enrollments. (Author/IRT)

Enrollment forecasting is a subject for scholars of varied interests and concerns. The literature reflects several perspectives, including those of school administrators, facilities planners, mathematicians, statisticians, demographers, and computer programmers. This pamphlet contains an analysis and annotated bibliographies of 29 publications on…