Natural language contains a variety of means for expressing possibilities consistent with what is known. Particularly well-studied among them are the epistemic modal auxiliaries "might" and "must": (1) a. Ann: "Where is Peter?" b. Mary: "He {might/must} be in his office." There is broad agreement that…

Common sense is a dynamic concept and it is natural that our (statistical) common sense lags behind the development of statistical science. What is not so easy to understand is why common sense lags behind as much as it does. We conduct a survey among Japanese students and provide examples and tentative explanations of a number of statistical…

This study explores the epistemic considerations that seemed to govern thirty-one Indian teachers' beliefs while teaching certain concepts of probability, especially using random generators. It focuses on knowing how these teachers make transitions between the different interpretations of probability, namely, Logical (sometimes also known as…

This article presents a series of three experiments investigating the processing of nested epistemic expressions, utterances containing two epistemic modals in one clause, such as "he 'certainly may' have forgotten." While some linguists claim that in a nested epistemic expression one modal is semantically embedded within the scope of…

Hinterecker, Knauff, and Johnson-Laird (2016) compared the adequacy of the probabilistic new paradigm in reasoning with the recent revision of mental models theory (MMT) for explaining a novel class of inferences containing the modal term "possibly." For example, "the door is closed or the window is open or both," therefore,…

This paper explores the use of irony in narratives that focus on the problem of knowing what we do not know. Sometimes issues arise on a grand scale, as in the literature of Socrates, Pascal, and Descartes, where the question really is whether we can know anything at all or whether all that we can know is that there is nothing worth knowing that…

Confidence and its accuracy have been most commonly examined in domains such as general knowledge and learning, with less study of other domains, such as applied knowledge and problem solving. Monitoring accuracy in real-world competencies may depend on characteristics of the domain. In this study, we examined whether monitoring accuracy, both…

We report a series of experiments examining whether people ascribe knowledge for true beliefs based on probabilistic evidence. Participants were less likely to ascribe knowledge for beliefs based on probabilistic evidence than for beliefs based on perceptual evidence (Experiments 1 and 2A) or testimony providing causal information (Experiment 2B).…

Research on student epistemologies in introductory courses has highlighted the importance of understanding physics as "a refinement of everyday thinking" [A. Einstein, J. Franklin Inst. 221, 349 (1936)]. That view is difficult to sustain in quantum mechanics, for students as for physicists. How might students manage the transition? In…

According to our approach to mathematics education, the optimal aim of the teaching of mathematics is to assist students in achieving efficient mathematical work. But, what does efficient exactly mean in that case? And how can teachers reach this objective? The model of Mathematical Working Spaces with its three dimensions--semiotic, instrumental,…

There is ample evidence that reasoning about stochastic phenomena is often subject to systematic bias even after instruction. Few studies have examined the detailed learning processes involved in learning probability. This paper examines a case study drawn from a large corpus of data collected as part of a research project that dealt with the…

Purpose: The purpose of this study is to describe the underlying topics and the topic evolution in the 50-year history of educational leadership research literature. Method: We used automated text data mining with probabilistic latent topic models to examine the full text of the entire publication history of all 1,539 articles published in…

Plausibility judgments rarely have been addressed empirically in conceptual change research. Recent research, however, suggests that these judgments may be pivotal to conceptual change about certain topics where a gap exists between what scientists and laypersons find plausible. Based on a philosophical and empirical foundation, this article…

The purpose of this study was to investigate epistemological predictors of nature of science understandings of 281 prospective biology teachers surveyed using the Epistemological Beliefs Scale Regarding Science and the Nature of Science Scale. The findings on multiple linear regression showed that understandings about definition of science and…

Placed in the historical context of government funding of academic research, this critical analysis identifies the complexities and implications of schools of social work pursuing federal grants for research. Schools of social work with particular organizational characteristics are better able to compete for federal grants, incurring lower…