Evaluators are often called upon to assess the effects of programs. To assess a program effect, evaluators need a clear understanding of how a program effect is defined. Arguably, the most widely used definition of a program effect is the counterfactual one. According to the counterfactual definition, a program effect is the difference between…

This paper develops a novel approach called Outcome Trajectory Evaluation (OTE) in response to the long-causal-chain problem confronting the evaluation of research for development (R4D) projects. OTE strives to tackle four issues resulting from the common practice of evaluating R4D projects based on theory of change developed at the start. The…

Over 2000 years ago, Aristotle wrote of four distinct causes at play in the world we know. Those causes, the material cause, the formal cause, the efficient cause, and the final cause, were meant to refer to ontological and, by extension, epistemological concerns, and were powerful enough to be seized upon and used in some form by those of very…

Education decisionmakers need access to the best evidence about the effectiveness of education interventions, including practices, products, programs, and policies. It can be difficult, time consuming, and costly to access and draw conclusions from relevant studies about the effectiveness of interventions. The What Works Clearinghouse (WWC)…

Treatment effect estimates from a "regression discontinuity design" (RDD) have high internal validity. However, the arguments that support the design apply to a subpopulation that is narrower and usually different from the population of substantive interest in evaluation research. The disconnect between RDD population and the…

Cooperative and Work-integrated Education (CWIE) programs have been widely accepted as educational programs that can effectively connect what students are learning to the world of work through placements. Because a global quality standards framework could be a very valuable resource and guide to establishing, developing, and accrediting quality…

Using exogenous characteristics to identify endogenous subgroups, the approach discussed in this method note creates symmetric subsets within treatment and control groups, allowing the analysis to take advantage of an experimental design. In order to maintain treatment--control symmetry, however, prior work has posited that it is necessary to use…

This report summarizes the complex research literature on quantitative methods for assessing how impacts of educational interventions on instructional practices and student learning differ across students, educators, and schools. It also provides technical guidance about the use and interpretation of these methods. The research topics addressed…

Summarizes interesting aspects of the preceding chapters and the issues and concerns raised related to program theory evaluation. Suggests that evaluators may be fighting a losing battle in their efforts to shore up weak programs through the introduction of program theory evaluation, asserting that the development of strong program theory should…

Explores the relative strengths and weaknesses of program theory as a tool for inferring causality and outlines a five-stage approach that makes increased use of inductively built program theories as it takes more deliberate account of the varying levels of certainty that are required for evaluative conclusions. (Author/SLD)

Discusses the role that causal models play in program theory evaluation. Considers several types of causal relationships and discusses three causal models derived from systems theory, the theories of virtuous or vicious cycles, symptomatic solutions, and feedback delays. (SLD)

Offers a critical commentary on theory-based evaluation, stressing its utility as a method of program planning and as an adjunct to experiments but rejecting it as an alternative to experiments. Cites seven reasons for doubting that theory-based evaluations can provide the valid conclusions about a program's causal effects that proponents have…

This article presents propensity score matching as a method to implement randomized conditions to analyze service effects using nonexperimental data. Most social work research is challenged to implement randomized clinical trials, whereas administrative and survey data are often available and can provide valuable information about services…

Program directors and evaluators need to address the important program accountability question of attribution of outcomes. This discussion is a beginning. Starting with some basics, such as the meaning of the program, approaches to program theory development, and the nature of attribution, the paper suggests three types of attribution. An…

Two chapters of this issue consider critical multiplism as a research strategy with links to meta analysis and generalizability theory. The unifying perspective it can provide for quantitative and qualitative evaluation is discussed. The third chapter explores meta analysis as a way to improve causal inferences in nonexperimental data. (SLD)