In pursuing goals, people seek favorable odds. We investigated whether young children use this fact to infer goals from people's actions across two experiments on Canadian 3- to 7-year-old children (N = 316; 167 girls, 149 boys). Participants' demographic information was not formally collected, but the region is predominantly middle-class and…

Identifying the mistakes in student responses and being able to manage the solution process are among the fundamental skills that should be acquired by the pre-service teachers. This skill is important in probability, about which students have a great number of misconceptions. The aim of this study was to determine the misconceptions in the…

Probability signifies a mainstream strand in mathematics curricula. Nonetheless, many curricular documents prepared for teachers might not offer enough support. In such a situation, a further reflection on teachers' professional knowledge for teaching probability is demanded; especially, from the perspective of probabilistic reasoning (PoPR) that…

Previous research accounting for pronoun resolution as a problem of probabilistic inference has not explored the phenomenon of adaptation, whereby the processor constantly tracks and adapts, rationally, to changes in a statistical environment. We investigate whether Brazilian (BP) and European Portuguese (EP) speakers adapt to variations in the…

Pseudocontingencies are inferences about correlations in the environment that are formed on the basis of statistical regularities like skewed base rates or varying base rates across environmental contexts. Previous research has demonstrated that pseudocontingencies provide a pervasive mechanism of inductive inference in numerous social judgment…

It is commonly assumed that belief-based reasoning is fast and automatic, whereas rule-based reasoning is slower and more effortful. Dual-Process theories of reasoning rely on this speed-asymmetry explanation to account for a number of reasoning phenomena, such as base-rate neglect and belief-bias. The goal of the current study was to test this…

We report 3 experiments investigating novel sorts of inference, such as: A or B or both. Therefore, possibly (A and B). Where the contents were sensible assertions, for example, "Space tourism will achieve widespread popularity in the next 50 years or advances in material science will lead to the development of antigravity materials in the…

One of the major debates concerning the nature of inferential reasoning is between counterexample-based theories such as mental model theory and probabilistic theories. This study looks at conclusion updating after the addition of statistical information to examine the hypothesis that deductive reasoning cannot be explained by probabilistic…

Risk is a fundamental component of well-being and is interconnected with all aspects of child development. The aim of this paper is to explore children's (N = 50) own perspectives and perceptions of risky situations. Semi-structured interviews were conducted and images were used as prompts. Children aged five to six years were asked to identify…

This article presents the results of a qualitative research with a group of 15 university students of social sciences on informal inferential reasoning developed in a computer environment on concepts involved in the confidence intervals. The results indicate that students developed a correct reasoning about sampling variability and visualized…

How likely is the glass to break, given that it is heated? The present study asks questions such as this with or without the premise "if the glass is heated, it breaks." A reduced problem (question without premise) measures the statistical dependency (conditional probability) of an event to occur, given that another has occurred. Such…

In 2 experiments, we tested a strong version of a dual process theory of conditional inference (cf. Verschueren et al., 2005a, 2005b) that assumes that most reasoners have 2 strategies available, the choice of which is determined by situational variables, cognitive capacity, and metacognitive control. The statistical strategy evaluates inferences…

The psychology of reasoning is increasingly considering agents' values and preferences, achieving greater integration with judgment and decision making, social cognition, and moral reasoning. Some of this research investigates utility conditionals, ‘"if 'p' then 'q'’" statements where the realization of "p" or "q" or…

This research empirically evaluates data sets from the National Center for Education Statistics (NCES) for design effects of ignoring the sampling design in weighted two-level analyses. Currently, researchers may ignore the sampling design beyond the levels that they model which might result in incorrect inferences regarding hypotheses due to…

The purpose of this study is to define teacher views about the difficulties in learning and teaching middle school statistics subjects. To serve this aim, a number of interviews were conducted with 10 middle school maths teachers in 2011-2012 school year in the province of Trabzon. Of the qualitative descriptive research methods, the…