Previous research has suggested that infants are able to distinguish between possible and impossible events and make basic probabilistic inferences. However, much of this research has focused on children's intuitions about past events for which the outcome is already determined but unknown. Here, we investigated children's ability to use…

Students expose various intuitions in probability comparison and calculation tasks. Large volumes of research looked into these intuitions by categorizing learners' strategies, but fewer studies considered how these intuitions may be associated with learners' judgments. Even fewer examined the mixed effects of multiple intuitions held by the same…

Young children encounter uncertainty and challenges on a daily basis; through their intuitions, experiences and experimentation they construct knowledge, skills and dispositions towards probabilistic concepts. The aim of this exploratory ethnographic study is to identify how young children engage with probabilistic thinking and reasoning while…

In this paper, we investigate the ways in which 15 year-old students conceive interrelated issues of randomness. We deal with these issues of randomness as a whole and not separately from each other, in contrast to the research so far. In order to analyse the students' ways we introduce a modification of Kyburg's Schema [(1974). "The logical…

This article reports on a pilot study that used concrete materials and TinkerPlots to support a Year 4 student's understanding of the big ideas of variation and expectation when investigating a random chance experiment using spinners.

In this article we study the conceptions of an American and a French group of undergraduate pre-service teachers regarding the concept of independent events. Specifically, we study the role that intuition plays in their answers, ascertain the presence of probabilistic biases, and compare the findings with previous results collected on a different…

This paper is based on research that investigated the development of probabilistic language and thinking by students 10-12 years old. The focus was on the adequate use of probabilistic terms in social practice. A series of tasks was developed for the investigation and completed by the students working in groups. The discussions were video recorded…

Base-rate neglect refers to the tendency for people to underweight base-rate probabilities in favor of diagnostic information. It is commonly held that base-rate neglect occurs because effortful (Type 2) reasoning is required to process base-rate information, whereas diagnostic information is accessible to fast, intuitive (Type 1) processing…

Evidence evaluation is a crucial process in many human activities, spanning from medical diagnosis to impression formation. The present experiments investigated which, if any, normative model best conforms to people's intuition about the value of the obtained evidence. Psychologists, epistemologists, and philosophers of science have proposed…

Early childhood teachers may differ regarding the knowledge base they use when making professional decisions. In this study two orientations are distinguished: the orientation towards scientific knowledge vs. the orientation towards intuition and subjective experience. As different tracks in early childhood teacher education qualify for…

People can intuitively detect whether a word triad has a common remote associate (coherent) or does not have one (incoherent) before and independently of actually retrieving the common associate. The authors argue that semantic coherence increases the processing fluency for coherent triads and that this increased fluency triggers a brief and…

I report on what teachers in an Advanced Certificate in Education (ACE) inservice programme learned about probabilistic reasoning in relation to teaching it. I worked "on the inside" using my practice as a site for studying teaching and learning. The teachers were from three different towns in the Northern Cape province and had limited…

Discusses the performance of Malaysian secondary school students on a probability concepts test covering various intuitive and taught probability concepts. Describes the establishment of a probability concepts hierarchy and considers probability understanding in relation to independent variables. Boys, Form Six students, and students with a higher…

What people mean by randomness should be taken into account when teaching statistical inference. This experiment explored subjective beliefs about randomness and probability through two successive tasks. Subjects were asked to categorize 16 familiar items: 8 real items from everyday life experiences, and 8 stochastic items involving a repeatable…

To investigate the origins and nature of intuitive obstacles affecting the learning of elementary probability theory, 618 Italian elementary and middle school students were interviewed about their methods of solution for several problems dealing with probability. The discussion focuses on four varieties of obstacles to learning prevalent within…