Identifying collaboration between learners in a course is an important challenge in education for two reasons: First, depending on the courses rules, collaboration can be considered a form of cheating. Second, it helps one to more accurately evaluate each learners competence. While such collaboration identification is already challenging in…

Public debates about socioscientific issues are increasingly prevalent, but the public response to messages about, for example, climate change, does not always seem to match the seriousness of the problem identified by scientists. Is there anything unique about appeals based on scientific evidence--do people evaluate science and nonscience…

The concept of consensus ordering is defined, and formulas for exact and approximate posterior probabilities for consensus ordering are developed under the assumption of a generalized Mallows' model with a diffuse conjugate prior. These methods are applied to a data set concerning 98 college students. (SLD)

Examined are methodologies for modeling students' choices among higher education institutions. A statistical technique called "conditional logit analysis" is applicable to the problem studied. These applications are reviewed and certain weaknesses inherent in the approach are pointed out. Alternative approaches are offered, based on the…

A Bayesian solution is suggested to the problem of jointly estimating "k is greater than 1" binomial parameters in conjunction with the problem of testing, in a Bayesian sense, the hypothesis "H" of parametric homogeneity. Applications of the estimates are illustrated with several types of data, including ophthalmological…

The use of subjective probability as a theoretical model for enrollment forecasting is proposed, and the results of an application of subjective probability to enrollment forecasting at the University of Toledo are reported. Subjective probability can be used as an enrollment forecasting technique for both headcount and full-time equivalent using…

Simple Bayesian approaches can be applied to answer specific questions in evaluating an individualized reading program. A small reading and study skills program located in the counseling center of a major research university collected and compiled data on student characteristics such as class, number of sessions attended, grade point average, and…

A general approach is proposed for modeling the structure of a two-way contingency table, and for drawing inferences about the marginal and interaction effects, cell parameters, and conditional probabilities. The prior distribution expresses uncertainty in a simple reduced model, in particular the independence model. The posterior estimates of the…

Explains a new way of viewing Bayes' formula. Discusses the revision factor and its interpretation. (YP)

The decision making processes of children in a probabilistic environment were studied within the context of the theory of signal detection (TSD). The relationship between the age of the child and his ability to revise decision criteria was examined, as well as the appropriateness of TSD measures and methodology with children. It was hypothesized…

A procedure for predicting categorical outcomes using categorical predictor variables was described by Moonan. This paper describes a related technique which uses prior probabilities, updated by joint likelihoods, as classification criteria. The procedure differs from Moonan's in that the outcome having the greatest posterior probability is…