We examined the efficacy of a Model Statement to detect opinion lies. A total of 93 participants discussed their opinion about the recent strikes on two occasions, 1 week apart. In one interview they told the truth and in the other interview they lied. Each interview consisted of two phases. In Phase 1 they discussed their alleged opinion (truth…

Most researchers receive formal training in frequentist statistics during their undergraduate studies. In particular, hypothesis testing is usually rooted on the null hypothesis significance testing paradigm and its p-value. Null hypothesis Bayesian testing and its so-called Bayes factor are now becoming increasingly popular. Although the Bayes…

"Simulation-based inference" is often considered a pedagogical strategy for helping students develop inferential reasoning, for example, giving them a visual and concrete reference for deciding whether the observed statistic is unlikely to happen by chance alone when the null hypothesis is true. In this article, we highlight for teachers…

This study investigated the effects of presenting domain information (basic information about the domain) either together with or instead of offering exploratory practice (an exploratory opportunity in a simulation-based representation of the learning domain) prior to inquiry learning for facilitating students' hypothesis generation and subsequent…

This article uses the interventionist theory of causation, a counterfactual theory taken from philosophy of science, to strengthen causal analysis in process tracing research. Causal claims from process tracing are re-expressed in terms of so-called hypothetical interventions, and concrete evidential tests are proposed which are shown to…

Statistical learning enables humans to involuntarily process and utilize different kinds of patterns from the environment. However, the cognitive mechanisms underlying the simultaneous acquisition of multiple regularities from different perceptual modalities remain unclear. A novel multidimensional serial reaction time task was developed to test…

This study reviews and compares indicators that can serve to characterize numerically the nature of state sequences. It also introduces several new indicators. Alongside basic measures such as the length, the number of visited distinct states, and the number of state changes, we shall consider composite measures such as turbulence and the…

This article is concerned with the assumption of linear temporal development that is often advanced in structural equation modeling-based longitudinal research. The linearity hypothesis is implemented in particular in the popular intercept-and-slope model as well as in more general models containing it as a component, such as longitudinal…

Background: Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) is a powerful and broadly utilized statistical framework. Researchers employ these models to dissect relationships into direct, indirect, and total effects (Bollen, 1989). These models unpack the "black box" issues within cause-and-effect studies by examining the underlying theoretical…

Mediation analysis is widely used to study whether the effect of an independent variable on an outcome is transmitted through a mediator. Bayesian methods have become increasingly popular for mediation analysis. However, limited research has been done on formal Bayesian hypothesis testing of mediation. Although hypothesis testing using Bayes…

"Integrative evaluation" is an approach with two main phases: identification of plausible rival hypotheses and integration of rival hypotheses. The first phase may correspond to traditional adversary evaluation, whereas the second phase, that is not included in adversary evaluation, requires integrative thinking which can be applied when…

We empirically examined the effectiveness of how the Analysis of Competing Hypotheses (ACH) technique structures task information to help reduce confirmation bias (Study 1) and the portrayal of intelligence analysts as suffering from such bias (Study 2). Study 1 (N = 161) showed that individuals presented with hypotheses in rows and evidence items…

In psychology, researchers are often interested in testing hypotheses about mediation, such as testing the presence of a mediation effect of a treatment (e.g., intervention assignment) on an outcome via a mediator. An increasingly popular approach to testing hypotheses is the Bayesian testing approach with Bayes factors (BFs). Despite the growing…

Students often make incorrect predictions about their exam performance, with the lowest-performing students showing the greatest inaccuracies in their predictions. The reasons why low-performing students make inaccurate predictions are not fully understood. In two studies, we tested the hypothesis that low-performing students erroneously predict…

Cognitive Diagnosis Models (CDMs) are a special family of discrete latent variable models widely used in educational, psychological and social sciences. In many applications of CDMs, certain hierarchical structures among the latent attributes are assumed by researchers to characterize their dependence structure. Specifically, a directed acyclic…