Since 2018, institutions of higher education have been aware of the "enrollment cliff" which refers to expected declines in future enrollment. This paper attempts to describe how prepared institutions in Ohio are for this future by looking at trends leading up to the anticipated decline. Using IPEDS data from 2012-2022, we analyze trends…

Dynamic Item Response Models extend the standard Item Response Theory (IRT) to capture temporal dynamics in learner ability. While these models have the potential to allow instructional systems to actively monitor the evolution of learner proficiency in real time, existing dynamic item response models rely on expensive inference algorithms that…

The process of generating challenging and appropriate distractors for multiple-choice questions is a complex and time-consuming task. Existing methods for an automated generation have limitations in proposing challenging distractors, or they fail to effectively filter out incorrect choices that closely resemble the correct answer, share synonymous…

Given the rapid adoption of machine learning methods by education researchers, and the growing acknowledgment of their inherent risks, there is an urgent need for tailored methodological guidance on how to improve and evaluate the validity of inferences drawn from these methods. Drawing on an integrative literature review and extending a…

Heterogeneity is commonplace in meta-analysis. When heterogeneity is found, researchers often aim to identify predictors that account for at least part of such heterogeneity by using mixed-effects meta-regression models. Another potentially relevant goal is to focus on the amount of heterogeneity as a function of one or more predictors, but this…

In recent years, proponents of configurational comparative methods (CCMs) have advanced various dimensions of robustness as instrumental to model selection. But these robustness considerations have not led to computable robustness measures, and they have typically been applied to the analysis of real-life data with unknown underlying causal…

This software review discusses the capabilities of Stata to conduct item response theory modeling. The commands needed for fitting the popular one-, two-, and three-parameter logistic models are initially discussed. The procedure for testing the discrimination parameter equality in the one-parameter model is then outlined. The commands for fitting…

The samples of evidence we use to make inferences in everyday and formal settings are often subject to selection biases. Two property induction experiments examined group and individual sensitivity to one type of selection bias: sampling frames - causal constraints that only allow certain types of instances to be sampled. Group data from both…

Mental model (Johnson-Laird, 2001) and probabilistic theories (Oaksford & Chater, 2009) claim to provide distinct explanations of human reasoning. However, the dual strategy model of reasoning suggests that this distinction corresponds to different reasoning strategies, termed "counterexample" and "statistical,"…

Thinking about knowledge and knowing ("i.e.", epistemic cognition) is an important part of student learning and has implications for how they apply their knowledge in future courses, careers, and other aspects of their lives. Three classes of models have emerged from research on epistemic cognition: developmental models, dimensional…

The aim of this article is to propose a didactical approach to establish appropriate relations between different kinds of chemical knowledge and explanations at the macro and the submicro level. Incorrectly moving between these two levels is regarded as the cause of many misconceptions in school chemistry, and several theoretical frameworks have…

Data reasoning is an essential component of scientific reasoning, as a component of evidence evaluation. In this paper, we outline a model of scientific data reasoning that describes how data sensemaking underlies data reasoning. Data sensemaking, a relatively automatic process rooted in perceptual mechanisms that summarize large quantities of…

Testing item fit is central in item response theory (IRT) modeling, since a good fit is necessary to draw valid inferences from estimated model parameters. "Infit" and "outfit" fit statistics, widespread indices for detecting deviations from the Rasch model, are affected by data factors, such as sample size. Consequently, the…

When fitting unidimensional item response theory (IRT) models, the population distribution of the latent trait ([theta]) is often assumed to be normally distributed. However, some psychological theories would suggest a nonnormal [theta]. For example, some clinical traits (e.g., alcoholism, depression) are believed to follow a positively skewed…

Predictive coding theories suggest that core symptoms in autism spectrum disorders (ASD) may stem from atypical mechanisms of perceptual inference (i.e., inferring the hidden causes of sensations). Specifically, there would be an imbalance in the precision or weight ascribed to sensory inputs relative to prior expectations. Using three tactile…