Causal reasoning is a fundamental cognitive ability that enables individuals to learn about the complex interactions in the world around them. However, the mechanisms that underpin causal reasoning are not well understood. For example, it remains unresolved whether children's causal inferences are best explained by Bayesian inference or…

Listening to music activates representations of movement and social agents. Why? We test whether causal reasoning plays a role, and find that from childhood, people can intuitively reason about how musical sounds were generated, inferring the events and agents that caused the sounds. In Experiment 1 (N = 120, pre-registered), 6-year-old children…

Over the last two decades, statistics educators have made important changes to introductory courses. Current guidelines emphasize developing statistical thinking in students and exposing them to the entire investigative process in the context of interesting research questions and real data. As a result, many concepts (confounding, multivariable…

Young children can engage in diagnostic reasoning. However, almost all research demonstrating such capacities has investigated children's inferences when the individual efficacy of each candidate cause is known. Here we show that there is development between ages five and seven in children's ability to reason about the number of candidate causes…

Young children spend a large portion of their time pretending about non-real situations. Why? We answer this question by using the framework of Bayesian causal models to argue that pretending and counterfactual reasoning engage the same component cognitive abilities: disengaging with current reality, making inferences about an alternative…

Individuals have difficulty changing their causal beliefs in light of contradictory evidence. We hypothesized that this difficulty arises because people facing implausible causes give greater consideration to causal alternatives, which, because of their use of a positive test strategy, leads to differential weighting of contingency evidence.…

Preschoolers use information from interventions, namely intentional actions, to make causal inferences. We asked whether children consider some interventions to be more informative than others based on two components of an actor's knowledge state: whether an actor "possesses" causal knowledge, and whether an actor is allowed to "use" their…

Two experiments examined developmental patterns in children's conditional reasoning with everyday causal conditionals. In Experiment 1, a group of pre-, early, young, and late adolescents generated counterexamples for a set of conditionals to validate developmental claims about the counterexample retrieval capacity. In Experiment 2, participants…

Causal reasoning represents one of the most basic and important cognitive processes that underpin all higher-order activities, such as conceptual understanding and problem solving. Hume called causality the "cement of the universe" [Hume (1739/2000). Causal reasoning is required for making predictions, drawing implications and…

Although knowledge-based inferences (Graesser, Singer, & Trabasso, 1994) depend on general knowledge, there may be differences across knowledge areas in how they support these processes. This study explored processing differences between 2 areas of knowledge (physical cause?effect vs. goals and planning) to establish (a) that each would support…

Literature on multivariable causal inference (MCI) and literature on scientific reasoning (SR) have proceeded almost entirely independently, although they in large part address the same phenomena. An effort is made to bring these paradigms into close enough alignment with one another to compare implications of the two lines of work and examine how…

Changes in children's understanding of experimentation are examined. Sixteen fifth and sixth graders worked on two experimentation problems consistent with an engineering and science model, respectively. The science model was associated with broader exploration, more selectiveness about evidence interpreted, and greater attention to establishing…

To study how the organization of information affects the way that information is interpreted, a total of 404 undergraduates in two studies (151 and 253 students, respectively) solved statistical reasoning problems based on data presented in a variety of types of graphs and tables. When assessing relative probabilities, students were equally…

This paper contains a consideration of the nature and role of warrants for research conclusions in educational research. The paper argues the need for an explicit warrant in the form of a logical and persuasive link between the evidence produced and the conclusions drawn (with appropriate qualifications and caveats). It describes social scientific…