We welcome Professor Pearl's comment on our original article, Dawid et al. Our focus there on the distinction between the "Effects of Causes" (EoC) and the "Causes of Effects" (CoE) concerned two fundamental problems, one a theoretical challenge in statistics and the other a practical challenge for trial courts. In this…

People's reactions to coincidences are often cited as an illustration of the irrationality of human reasoning about chance. We argue that coincidences may be better understood in terms of rational statistical inference, based on their functional role in processes of causal discovery and theory revision. We present a formal definition of…

"Theory as Method: Small Theories of Treatments," by Mark W. Lipsey, is one of the most influential and highly cited articles to appear in "New Directions for Evaluation." It articulated an approach in which methods for studying causation depend, in large part, on what is known about the theory underlying the program. Lipsey discussed the benefits…

Raises conceptual and empirical questions regarding: whether physical aggression is the main individual risk factor for antisocial behavior; the prospect that language impairment is also a risk factor; the meaning of the male preponderance for antisocial behavior; findings on environmentally mediated risk; the role of biosocial interplay; the…

Early explanations of sound change were often sought in extralinguistic factors such as climate or the speakers' physiology. More recently, scholars have been reluctant to explain changes this way, but the most widely accepted extralinguistic explanation is the substratum theory. Other linguists, notably the Prague group, looked to the linguistic…

Two causal models are presented to describe influences on the performance of students with learning disabilities. The first model associates reading and math with three domains: neuropsychological, linguistic, and social-behavioral. The second model involved relationships among selected individual variables and suggests that learning disability is…

This paper describes several common types of research studies in special education transition literature and the threats to their validity. It then describes how the evidential base may be broadened, how diverse sources of evidence can be combined to strengthen causal inferences, and the role of judgment within quasi-experimentation. The paper…