Researchers across many fields have called for greater attention to heterogeneity of treatment effects--shifting focus from the average effect to variation in effects between different treatments, studies, or subgroups. True heterogeneity is important, but many reports of heterogeneity have proved to be false, non-replicable, or exaggerated. In…

Algorithms for approximate Bayesian inference, such as those based on sampling (i.e., Monte Carlo methods), provide a natural source of models of how people may deal with uncertainty with limited cognitive resources. Here, we consider the idea that individual differences in working memory capacity (WMC) may be usefully modeled in terms of the…

Arguably one of the most valuable tools for investigating pupil behaviour in an educational environment is systematic classroom observation. Classroom observation is often cited as having the potential to enable research of the learning process in action. Low inference classroom observation instruments are designed to record a sequence of data…

The Predict-Observe-Explain (POE) learning cycle improves understanding of the connection between empirical results and theoretical concepts when students engage in hands-on experimentation. This study explored whether training students to use a POE strategy when learning from social science texts that describe theories and experimental results…

In our everyday life, we often need to anticipate the potential occurrence of events and their consequences. In this context, the way we represent contingencies can determine our ability to adapt to the environment. However, it is not clear how agents encode and organize available knowledge about the future to react to possible states of the…

In theoretical cognitive science, there is a tension between highly structured models whose parameters have a direct psychological interpretation and highly complex, general-purpose models whose parameters and representations are difficult to interpret. The former typically provide more insight into cognition but the latter often perform better.…

The commentary discusses phenomena highlighted in the studies of the special issue such as the hypercorrection effect, overconfidence, and the efficiency of interventions designed to increase monitoring accuracy. The discussion is based on a broader theoretical framework of self-regulation of learning that stresses the inferential character of…