Interacting with a system is key to uncovering its causal structure. A computational framework for interventional causal learning has been developed over the last decade, but how real causal learners might achieve or approximate the computations entailed by this framework is still poorly understood. Here we describe an interactive computer task in…

Two experiments, with 300 adult women as subjects, studied the effects of laboratory training on the use of the Conjunction Rule, a principle of probability that is often violated. Learning alternative strategies enabled trained subjects to use extensional reasoning rather than intensional heuristics. (SLD)

This study sought to determine: (1) what children understand about "chance" when they begin secondary school?; and (2) how common and how influential the use of informal heuristics, approaches, and biases is in their thinking about probability in the school context. Children's understanding of chance, attributions of events to…

This paper illustrates a model of the layperson's reasoning patterns under conditions of uncertainty, the "outcome approach," which was developed from analysis of videotaped problem-solving interviews with 16 undergraduate students. According to the outcome approach, the goal in questions of uncertainty is to predict the outcome of an…