High dropout rate exists universally in massive open online courses (MOOCs) due to the separation of teachers and learners in space and time. Dropout prediction using the machine learning method is an extremely important prerequisite to identify potential at-risk learners to improve learning. It has attracted much attention and there have emerged…

The use of Bayesian Knowledge Tracing (BKT) models in predicting student learning and mastery, especially in mathematics, is a well-established and proven approach in learning analytics. In this work, we report on our analysis examining the generalizability of BKT models across academic years attributed to "detector rot." We compare the…

Contributions: Prior studies on education have mostly followed the model of the cross-sectional study, namely, examining the pretest and the posttest scores. This article shows that students' knowledge throughout the intervention can be estimated by time-series analysis using a hidden Markov model (HMM). Background: Analyzing time series and the…

With the emergence of MOOCs, it becomes crucial to automate the process of a course design to accommodate the diverse learning demands of students. Modeling the relationships among educational topics is a fundamental first step for automating curriculum planning and course design. In this paper, we introduce "Topic Transition Map" (TTM),…

Bayesian knowledge tracing model (BKT) is a typical student knowledge assessment method. It is widely used in intelligent tutoring systems. In the standard BKT model, all knowledge and skills are independent of each other. However, in the process of student learning, they have a very close relation. A student may understand knowledge B better when…

A learner model reflects learning patterns and characteristics of a learner. A learner model with learning history and its effectiveness plays a significant role in supporting a learner's understanding of their strengths and weaknesses of their way of learning in order to make proper adjustments for improvement. Nowadays, learners have been…

Process Analysis is an emerging approach to discover meaningful knowledge from temporal educational data. The study presented in this paper shows how we used Process Analysis methods on the National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP) test data for modeling and predicting student test-taking behavior. Our process-oriented data exploration…

Statistical analysis of categorical data often relies on multiway contingency tables; yet, as the number of categories and/or variables increases, the number of table cells with few (or zero) observations also increases. Unfortunately, sparse contingency tables invalidate the use of standard good-ness-of-fit statistics. Limited-information fit…

Intelligent tutoring systems (ITSs) teach skills using learning-by-doing principles and provide learners with individualized feedback and materials adapted to their level of understanding. Given a learner's history of past interactions with an ITS, a learner performance model estimates the current state of a learner's knowledge and predicts her…

Massive online Open Courses (MOOCs) make extensive use of videos. Students interact with them by pausing, seeking forward or backward, replaying segments, etc. We can reasonably assume that students have different patterns of video interactions, but it remains hard to compare student video interactions. Some methods were developed, such as Markov…

Predictability of behavior is an important characteristic in many fields including biology, medicine, marketing, and education. When a sequence of actions performed by an individual can be modeled as a stationary time-homogeneous Markov chain the predictability of the individual's behavior can be quantified by the entropy rate of the process. This…

We use Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) analysis to construct a three-question math quiz to assess key skills needed for introductory finance. We begin with data collected from a ten-question criterion-referenced math quiz given to 314 undergraduates on the first day of class. MCMC indicates the top three questions for predicting overall course…

With the onset of online education via technology-enhanced learning platforms, large amount of educational data is being generated in the form of logs, clickstreams, performance, etc. These Virtual Learning Environments provide an opportunity to the researchers for the application of educational data mining and learning analytics, for mining the…

In this paper, we investigate two purported problems with Bayesian Knowledge Tracing (BKT), a popular statistical model of student learning: "identifiability" and "semantic model degeneracy." In 2007, Beck and Chang stated that BKT is susceptible to an "identifiability problem"--various models with different…

Skill acquisition theorists conceptualize second language (L2) learning as the acquisition of a set of perceptual, cognitive, and motor skills. The dominant view in skill acquisition theory is to regard L2 skill acquisition as a three-stage process "from initial representation of knowledge through initial changes in behavior to eventual…