The authors analyzed the development of 4th-grade students' understanding of the transition from experimental relative frequencies of outcomes to theoretical probabilities with a focus on the foundational statistical concepts of variation and expectation. After observing the decreasing variation from the theoretical probability as the sample size…

We establish an interesting connection between the number of runs and the length of the first run when tossing a fair coin.

Students explored variation and expectation in a probability activity at the end of the first year of a 3-year longitudinal study across grades 4-6. The activity involved experiments in tossing coins both manually and with simulation using the graphing software, "TinkerPlots." Initial responses indicated that the students were aware of…

When two sealed envelopes contain money, one twice as much as the other, a player should be indifferent between them. But when one envelope is opened, one's decision should vary as a function of the observed value and one's subjective probabilities.

The "matching" hats problem is a classic exercise in probability: if "n" people throw their hats in a box, and then each person randomly draws one out again, what is the expected number of people who draw their own hat? This paper presents several extensions to this problem, with solutions that involve interesting tricks with iterated…

The national lottery is often portrayed as a game of pure chance with no room for strategy. This misperception seems to stem from the application of probability instead of expectancy considerations, and can be utilized to introduce the statistical concept of expectation.

Probability terms were scaled by 3 methods as a result of a survey of undergraduate students (n=194): rank order, percentage estimate, and successive interval. Discusses implications for the selection and placement of probability terms on rating scales in the development of assessment instruments. (JPS)

A series of 13 survey questions based on a 50-50 spinner is used to explore school students' understanding of statistical variation in a chance setting. Five questions set the context by assessing understanding of theoretical expectation and representation of repeated trials in a stacked dot (line) plot. Four questions provide opportunity to…