Students expose various intuitions in probability comparison and calculation tasks. Large volumes of research looked into these intuitions by categorizing learners' strategies, but fewer studies considered how these intuitions may be associated with learners' judgments. Even fewer examined the mixed effects of multiple intuitions held by the same…

In this literature review, we survey student naïve ideas (frequently referred to as 'misconceptions') that plausibly relate, at least in part, to difficulty in understanding probability. We collected diverse naïve ideas from a range of topics in physics: Non-linear Dynamics; Cosmology; Thermal Physics; Atomic, Nuclear, and Particle Physics;…

This paper investigates two specific probabilistic biases which middle graders usually exhibit when reasoning about probability and randomness on assessment items. We discuss how students' reasoning about key probability concepts undergirds statistics literacy related to randomness, independence, and the likelihood of future events based on past…

We investigate the level of understanding of probability as related to games and gambling, and the concept of independence of events using a convenience sample of college undergraduates taking an introductory course in applied business statistics. We examined the students' perception of the role of skill in winning at four different games through…

Assessing students' conceptions related to independence of events and determining probabilities from a sample space has been the focus of research in probability education for over 40 years. While we know a lot from past studies about predictable ways students may reason with well-known tasks, developing a diagnostic assessment that can be used by…

According to the conceptual framework for K-grade 12 statistics education introduced in the 2007 Guidelines for Assessment and Instruction in Statistics Education (GAISE) report, students can be located at one of three developmental levels of statistical literacy: A, B, or C. These levels are independent of age and grade level, so, in theory,…

In an informal study, two versions of a story involving probability are introduced to undergraduates. The findings reveal that students have troubles detecting equal probabilities in a sampling scheme without replacement in which no information on earlier draws is available.

This study measures the mathematical abilities high school graduates' in Bahrain. Mathematical abilities encompass conceptual understanding, procedural knowledge and problem-solving skills in the five content domains which are Number and Operations, Algebra, Geometry, Measurement, and Data Analysis and Probability. While procedural understanding…

As the number of independent tosses of a fair coin grows, the rates of heads and tails tend to equality. This is misinterpreted by many students as being true also for the absolute numbers of the two outcomes, which, conversely, depart unboundedly from each other in the process. Eradicating that misconception, as by coin-tossing experiments,…

In the author's experience with this activity, students struggle with the idea of representativeness in probability. Therefore, this student misconception is part of the classroom discussion about the activities in this lesson. Representativeness is related to the (incorrect) idea that outcomes that seem more random are more likely to happen. This…

This study investigated prospective elementary (PEMTs) and secondary (PSMTs) school mathematics teachers' statistical reasoning. The study began with the adaptation of the Statistical Reasoning Assessment (Garfield, 2003) test. Then, the test was administered to 82 PEMTs and 91 PSMTs in a metropolitan city of Turkey. Results showed that both…

The objective of this article is to contribute to the documented dearth of research on teachers' probabilistic knowledge. Prospective teachers of elementary school mathematics were asked to identify which result from five flips of a fair coin was least likely to occur. Participants, instead of being presented with sequences, were presented with…

Tossing a fair coin 1000 times can have an unexpected result. In the activities presented here, players keep track of the accumulated total for heads and tails after each toss, noting which player is in the lead or whether the players are tied. The winner is the player who was in the lead for the higher number of turns over the course of the game.…

Probabilistic misconceptions are common among students and teachers alike. This study involved 18 preservice secondary mathematics teachers and documents some of the common probabilistic misconceptions held by these preservice teachers. Data was collected through a survey involving eight probability problems and two semi-structured interviews.…

Within the limited field of research on teachers' probabilistic knowledge, incorrect, inconsistent and even inexplicable responses to probabilistic tasks are most often accounted for by utilizing theories, frameworks and models, which are based upon heuristic and informal reasoning. More recently, the emergence of new research based upon informal…