Three counterexamples demonstrate that the Dutch Identity conjecture of P. Holland about examinee ability (1990) does not hold in general. The counterexamples suggest that only under strong assumptions can it be true that the limits of log-manifest probabilities are quadratic. Three propositions giving such strong conditions are given. (Author/SLD)

The empirical Bayes modeling approach--latent ability random sampling in the item response theory (IRT) context--to the IRT modeling of psychological tests is described. Under the usual empirical Bayes unidimensional IRT modeling approach, the posterior distribution of examinee ability given test response is approximately normal for a long test.…

The asymptotic posterior normality of latent variable distributions is established under very general and appropriate hypotheses, providing a probabilistic basis for assessing ability estimation/prediction accuracy in the long test case, as well as a first step in making the Dutch Identity conjecture rigorous. (SLD)