A model is proposed for the description of ordinal test scores based on the definition of true score as expected rank; its deviations are compared with results from classical test theory. An unbiased estimator of population true score from sample data is calculated. Score variance and population reliability are examined. (Author/BJG)

A model for the setting of mastery cut scores is presented. The model, based on the beta-binomial test distribution, allows for hand calculation of cut scores. The model provides a simple way to explore the consequences of selecting a particular cut score. (Author/JKS)

The relatively hard problem of transforming a given set of curves to curves with the same shape can sometimes be reduced to the easier problem of rendering curves parallel. In this paper a group is associated with the given curves, and it is shown that the reduction from the hard problem to the easy problem is valid whenever the group is…

Empirical Bayes point estimates of true score may be obtained if the distribution of observed score for a fixed examinee is approximated in one of several ways by a well-known compound binomial model. The Bayes estimates of true score may be expressed in terms of the observed score distribution and the distribution of a hypothetical binomial test.…

Using the concepts of conditional probability, conditional expectation, and conditional independence, the main results of the classical test theory model can be derived in a very few steps with minimal assumptions. The present effort explores the possibility that present classical test theories can be further condensed. (Author/RC)

An alternative to the uniform probability distribution model for ordinal data is considered. Implications for statistics and for test theory are discussed. (JKS)

The reliability of a criterion referenced test was defined as a measure of the degree to which the test discriminates between an individual's level of performance and a predetermined criterion level. The variances of observed and true scores were defined as the squared deviation of the score from the criterion. Based on these definitions and the…

The purpose of this paper is to evaluate the causes of the apparent failure of black parents to pass their status advantages along to their children. The black-white differences in status transmission found by Duncan are discussed, explaining his findings by means of the Wisconsin model of status attainment. To explain the lesser dependence of the…

A method of estimating the operating characteristics of a new test item added to an established test without assuming a prior model has been proposed by the author. In this paper, the author extends this logic by proposing a different hypothesized distribution of the resulting estimate. The former method used a normal approximation; the present…

In order to describe and predict career patterns of young men, this report provides: (1) Markov chains of the career patterns for four groups of 5,225 young men divided according to race and age, (2) tests of the predictive validity of the chains, and (3) comparisons of the four race-groups using the Markov models. Using the Holland occupational…

A procedure is described for increasing the reliability of tests after they have been given and for developing shorter but more reliable tests. Eight tests administered to 200 graduate students studying educational research are analyzed. The analysis considers the original tests, the items loading on the first factor of the test, and the items…

The first panel of a three-year longitudinal study was conducted to investigate the process by which youth form career expectations. The study was designed around a cross-sectional path model of career expectations drawn from the sociological literature on status attainment and is based on differential equations in which all expectation variables…

Latent trait models may offer considerable potential for the improvement of educational measurement practices, but until recently, they have received only limited attention from measurement specialists. This paper provides a brief introduction to latent trait models, and provides test practitioners with a non-technical introduction to the…

A summary is provided of the rationale for questioning the applicability of classical reliability measures to criterion referenced tests; an extension of the classical theory of true and error scores to incorporate a theory of dichotomous decisions; a presentation of the mean split-half coefficient of agreement, a single-administration test index…

This document was prepared in connection with a three-year longitudinal study of career expectations of high school students conducted to explain scientifically the process by which youth form career expectations, e.g., educational, occupational, and income expectations. Divided into six chapters, this document contains a theoretical rationale for…