Coordination of theoretical probability and relative frequency estimates is challenging in probability teaching and learning. Modeling is one of the ways of teaching and learning that facilitates inquiry between these two perspectives. Given that, we designed a modeling activity to support fifteen secondary students in investigating theoretical…

This paper describes an investigation looking at the underlying mathematics of poker machines. The aim of the investigation is for students to get an appreciation of how poker machines are designed to ensure that in the long-term players will inevitably lose when playing. The first part of this paper describes how students can model a simple poker…

This article summarizes a conceptual framework and simple mathematical methods of estimating the probability that one event was a necessary cause of another, as interpreted by lawmakers. We show that the fusion of observational and experimental data can yield informative bounds that, under certain circumstances, meet legal criteria of causation.…

Bayesian Knowledge Tracing is used very widely to model student learning. It comes in two different forms: The first form is the Bayesian Knowledge Tracing "hidden Markov model" which predicts the probability of correct application of a skill as a function of the number of previous opportunities to apply that skill and the model…

In the modern world information has become the new power. An increasing amount of efforts are being made to gather data, resources being allocated, time being invested and tools being developed. Data collection is no longer a myth; however, it remains a great challenge to create value out of the enormous data that is being collected. Data modeling…

Weather forecasting consists of two processes, model integration and analysis (data assimilation). During the model integration, the state estimate produced by the analysis evolves to the next cycle time according to the atmospheric model to become the background estimate. The analysis then produces a new state estimate by combining the background…

In most school achievement research, the relationships between achievement and explanatory variables follow the Newton and Einstein concept/principle and the viewpoint of the macro-observer: Deterministic measures based on the mean value of a sufficiently large number of schools. What if the relationships between achievement and explanatory…

Latent interaction models and mixture models have received considerable attention in social science research recently, but little is known about how to handle if unobserved population heterogeneity exists in the endogenous latent variables of the nonlinear structural equation models. The current study estimates a mixture of latent interaction…

Conjoint choice experiments are used widely in marketing to study consumer preferences amongst alternative products. We develop a class of choice models, belonging to the class of Poisson race models, that describe a "random utility" which lends itself to a process-based description of choice. The models incorporate a dependence structure which…

Hidden Markov models (HMMs) are widely used in bioinformatics, speech recognition and many other areas. This note presents HMMs via the framework of classical Markov chain models. A simple example is given to illustrate the model. An estimation method for the transition probabilities of the hidden states is also discussed.

In the nineteenth century many people tried to seek a value for the most famous irrational number, [pi], by means of an experiment known as Buffon's needle, consisting of throwing randomly a needle onto a surface ruled with straight parallel lines. Here we propose to extend this experiment in order to evaluate other irrational numbers, such as…

Darwinian selection by consequences was instantiated in a computational model that consisted of a repertoire of behaviors undergoing selection, reproduction, and mutation over many generations. The model in effect created a digital organism that emitted behavior continuously. The behavior of this digital organism was studied in three series of…

A computer program to perform a Monte Carlo simulation of counting experiments was written. The program was based on a mathematical derivation which started with counts in a time interval. The time interval was subdivided to form a binomial distribution with no two counts in the same subinterval. Then the number of subintervals was extended to…

This article proposes a general latent variable approach to discrete-time survival analysis of nonrepeatable events such as onset of drug use. It is shown how the survival analysis can be formulated as a generalized latent class analysis of event history indicators. The latent class analysis can use covariates and can be combined with the joint…

The author describes a new graphing algorithm for computing probabilities, and presents problems for these algorithms for use in the classroom. (SD)