In the modern world information has become the new power. An increasing amount of efforts are being made to gather data, resources being allocated, time being invested and tools being developed. Data collection is no longer a myth; however, it remains a great challenge to create value out of the enormous data that is being collected. Data modeling…

In most school achievement research, the relationships between achievement and explanatory variables follow the Newton and Einstein concept/principle and the viewpoint of the macro-observer: Deterministic measures based on the mean value of a sufficiently large number of schools. What if the relationships between achievement and explanatory…

The purpose of these modules is to provide an introduction to the world of probability and statistics to accelerated mathematics students at the high school level. The materials are centered on the fictional town of Happy Shores, a coastal community which is at risk for hurricanes. Actuaries at an insurance company figure out the risks and…

A special but common type of scenario is one in which a company has a promotion that is designed to make the customer purchase more of their product than they otherwise might. Although this can be aimed specifically at children, it really applies to all persons. The basic premise is that the company issues a "set" of different items or…

This paper presents two probabilistic models based on the logistic and the normal distribution for the analysis of dependencies in individual paired comparison judgments such as might occur in educational research. Three applications illustrate the approach. (SLD)

During the last decade the use of Bayesian statistical method has become quite prevalent in the educational community. Yet, like most statistical techniques, little has been written concerning the application of these methods to the classroom setting. The purpose of this paper is to help correct such a deficiency in the literature by developing a…

Proposes a mathematical model using the probability formalism to explain why a geometrical law is observed in distributions related to library circulation data. Highlights include techniques based on convolution theory; Lotka's law; and Bradford's law. (Author/LRW)

The use of prevalence data is discussed to help find the best way to separate at-risk and not-at-risk groups. Implications of the data being distributed normally are also discussed and several examples, including one with a nonnormal distribution, are given. (Author/GK)

Presents a probability model of the occurrence of index terms used to derive discrete distributions which are mixtures of Poisson and negative binomial distributions. These distributions give better fits than the simpler Zipf distribution, have the advantage of being more explanatory, and can incorporate a time parameter if necessary. (25…

A systematic investigation of the Grice modeling scheme for response time (RT) clarifies fundamental notions about RT modeling. The analysis presented can be used to determine what in a certain RT model constitutes a set of empirically testable assumptions and what is merely an arbitrary choice of mathematical language. (SLD)

A complete enumeration method and a Monte Carlo method are presented to calculate the probability distribution of arbitrary statistics of adjacency matrices when these matrices have the uniform distribution conditional on given row and column sums, and possibly on a given set of structural zeros. (SLD)

An inventory replenishment policy is developed for a deteriorating item and price-dependent demand. The rate of deterioration is taken to be time-proportional and the time to deterioration is assumed to follow a two-parameter Weibull distribution. A power law form of the price dependence of demand is considered. The model is solved analytically…

Discusses the interdependencies between parameter estimation and properties of probabilistic models, such as dependency assumptions, binary vs. nonbinary features, and estimation sample selection. An optimum estimation for binary features applicable to information retrieval is defined, a method for computing this estimation using empirical data is…

The normal curve has long been important in statistics. Most interval variables yield normal or quasi-normal distributions when data are collected from large samples, and the normal "Z" distribution is also used as a test statistic (e.g., to test differences between two means when sample size is large, since "t" approaches…

Investigates the relationships between the parameters of the Simon-Yule model and the shapes of three bibliometric distributions: Lotka's Law of Scientific Productivity; Bradford's Law of Bibliometric Scattering; and Zipf's Law of Word Frequency. The results indicate that the probability of a new entry determines the characteristics of all three…