A computer program to perform a Monte Carlo simulation of counting experiments was written. The program was based on a mathematical derivation which started with counts in a time interval. The time interval was subdivided to form a binomial distribution with no two counts in the same subinterval. Then the number of subintervals was extended to…

Models proposed by Cleary, Thorndike, Cole, Einhorn and Bass, and Darlington for analyzing bias in the use of tests in a selection strategy are surveyed. Six additional models for test bias are also introduced. The purpose is to describe, compare, contrast, and evaluate these models while, at the same time, extracting such useful ideas as may be…

A problem illustrating how physics and mathematics complement one another when analyzing problems of the physical world is described. (JT)

Presents adaptation of a probabilistic theoretical model previously used in relevance feedback for use in automatic indexing of documents (in the sense of imitating) human indexers. Methods for model application are proposed, independence assumptions used in the model are interpreted, and the probability of a dependence model is discussed.…

Two stage multiple-comparison procedures give an exact solution to problems of power and Type I errors, but require equal sample sizes in the first stage. This paper suggests a method of evaluating the experimentwise Type I error probability when the first stage has unequal sample sizes. (Author/BW)

Modeling the process by which participants are selected into groups, rather than adjusting for preexisting group differences, provides the basis for several new approaches to the analysis of data from nonrandomized studies. Econometric approaches, the propensity scores approach, and the relative assignment variable approach to the modeling of…

The present article reviews the procedures that have been developed for measuring the reliability of human observers' judgments when making direct observations of behavior. These include the percentage of agreement, Cohen's Kappa, phi, and univariate and multivariate agreement measures that are based on quasi-equiprobability and quasi-independence…

The probabilities of certain English football teams winning different playoffs are determined. In each case, a mathematical model is fitted to the observed data, assumptions are verified, and the calculations performed. (LS)

The development of probability judgment is explained in terms of working memory, composed of four types of storage operations and three types of processing operations. Age changes in probability judgment were related to changes in frequency retrieval, which stem from changes in constraints on work-space capacity. (Author/RD)

Wilcox has described three probability models which characterize a single test item in terms of a population of examinees (ED 156 718). This note indicates indicates that similar models can be derived which characterize a single examinee in terms of an item domain. A numerical illustration is given. (Author/JKS)

The concept of consensus ordering is defined, and formulas for exact and approximate posterior probabilities for consensus ordering are developed under the assumption of a generalized Mallows' model with a diffuse conjugate prior. These methods are applied to a data set concerning 98 college students. (SLD)

A statistical model for citation processes is presented as a particular version of a nonhomogenous birth process. The mean value function and special transition probabilities, which can readily be calculated on the basis of known and estimated parameters, give essential information on the change of citation impact in time. (10 references) (KRN)

A complete enumeration method and a Monte Carlo method are presented to calculate the probability distribution of arbitrary statistics of adjacency matrices when these matrices have the uniform distribution conditional on given row and column sums, and possibly on a given set of structural zeros. (SLD)

A decision field theory is proposed and used to explain motivational and cognitive mechanisms that guide the deliberation process involved in decisions made under uncertainty. Decision theories are extended into the stochastic-dynamic category. The proposed theory is compared with four other theories of decision making under uncertainty. (SLD)

Presents an activity in which the subject is the identity of the team in the greatest jeopardy of becoming the big loser in a basketball tournament. Explores several facts about the big loser, offering them in a hierarchy appropriate for creating various short- and long-term projects for a high school mathematics class. (ASK)