Hidden Markov models (HMMs) are widely used in bioinformatics, speech recognition and many other areas. This note presents HMMs via the framework of classical Markov chain models. A simple example is given to illustrate the model. An estimation method for the transition probabilities of the hidden states is also discussed.

The author of this paper submits the thesis that learning requires doing; only through inquiry is learning achieved, and hence this paper proposes a programme of use of a modified Moore method in a Probability and Mathematical Statistics (PAMS) course sequence to teach students PAMS. Furthermore, the author of this paper opines that set theory…

B. De Finetti's "Fundamental Theorem of Probability" is reformulated as a computable linear programming problem. The theorem is substantially extended, and shown to have fundamental implications for the theory and practice of statistics. It supports an operational meaning for the partial assertion of prevision via asserted bounds. The…

Swets' theory of information retrieval allows the threads of document weighting formulae, probabilistic measures of effectiveness, and management theory, to be woven into a coherent pattern. Benefits are: the beginnings of a quantitative description of retrieval languages; destinction between retrieval systems and language; and question generality…

The model assumes that the relevance assigned to a document by a juror is a random variable. (PF)

Various factors which influence the relationship between the Rasch item characteristic curve and the actual performance of an item are identified. The Rasch item characteristic curve is a new concept in test design and analysis. The Rasch test model provides information concerning the percent of students with a specified achievement level who…

Frequency, rank, and frequency rank distributions are defined. Extensive discussion on several aspects of frequency rank distributions includes the Poisson process as a means of exploring the stability of ranks; the correlation of frequency rank distributions; and the transfer coefficient, a new measure in frequency rank distribution. (MBR)

Proposes a probabilistic mechanism to describe various forms of the Bradford phenomenon reported in bibliographic research. The inclusion of a time parameter in the model to allow predictions of dynamic systems is explained. (58 references) (CLB)

A formal framework is presented for determining which of the distractors of multiple-choice test items has a small probability of being chosen by a typical examinee. The framework is based on a procedure similar to an indifference zone formulation of a ranking and election problem. (Author/BW)

The use of a quasi-equiprobability model in the measurement of observer agreement involving dichotomous coding categories is described. A measure of agreement is presented which gives the probability of agreement under the assumption that observation pairs reflecting disagreement will be equally probable. (Author/JKS)

Discusses a 1976 survey of Comprehensive Employment and Training Act participants and factors affecting the success or failure of employment programs. (JOW)

An integration of two different approaches to the psychology of causal induction is proposed that overcomes the problems associated with each. The proposal results in a causal power theory of the probabilistic contrast model of P. W. Cheng and L. R. Novick (1990). (SLD)

Presents an overview of Rasch measurement models that begins with a conceptualization of continuous experiences often captured as discrete observations. Discusses the mathematical properties of the Rasch family of models that allow the transformation of discrete deterministic counts into continuous probabilistic abstractions. Also discusses six of…