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Direct linkHogarth, Robin M.; Mukherjee, Kanchan; Soyer, Emre – Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition, 2013
Additive integration of information is ubiquitous in judgment and has been shown to be effective even when multiplicative rules of probability theory are prescribed. We explore the generality of these findings in the context of estimating probabilities of success in contests. We first define a normative model of these probabilities that takes…
Descriptors: Competition, Information Seeking, Decision Making Skills, Heuristics
Lissoni, Francesco; Mairesse, Jacques; Montobbio, Fabio; Pezzoni, Michele – National Bureau of Economic Research, 2010
The paper examines the determinants of scientific productivity (number of articles and journals' impact factor) for a panel of about 3600 French and Italian academic physicists active in 2004-05. Endogeneity problems concerning promotion and productivity are addressed by specifying a generalized Tobit model, in which a selection probit equation…
Descriptors: Productivity, Student Promotion, Probability, Scientists
