Popular item response theory (IRT) models are considered complex, mainly due to the inclusion of a random factor variable (latent variable). The random factor variable represents the incidental parameter problem since the number of parameters increases when including data of new persons. Therefore, IRT models require a specific estimation method…

We review common situations in Bayesian latent variable models where the prior distribution that a researcher specifies differs from the prior distribution used during estimation. These situations can arise from the positive definite requirement on correlation matrices, from sign indeterminacy of factor loadings, and from order constraints on…

Reference intervals, or reference ranges, aid medical decision-making by containing a pre-specified proportion (e.g., 95%) of the measurements in a representative healthy population. We recently proposed three approaches for estimating a reference interval from a meta-analysis based on a random effects model: a frequentist approach, a Bayesian…

The topic of Bayesian updating is explored using standard and non-standard dice as an intuitive and motivating model. Details of calculating posterior probabilities for a discrete distribution are provided, offering a different view to P-values. This article also includes the stars and bars counting technique, a powerful method of counting that is…

In this article, we propose a variational Bayes (VB) inference method for the deterministic input noisy AND gate model of cognitive diagnostic assessment. The proposed method, which applies the iterative algorithm for optimization, is derived based on the optimal variational posteriors of the model parameters. The proposed VB inference enables…

The analysis of cross-lagged relationships is a popular approach in prevention research to explore the dynamics between constructs over time. However, a limitation of commonly used cross-lagged models is the requirement of equally spaced measurement occasions that prevents the usage of flexible longitudinal designs and complicates cross-study…

In relational event networks, the tendency for actors to interact with each other depends greatly on the past interactions between the actors in a social network. Both the volume of past interactions and the time that has elapsed since the past interactions affect the actors' decision-making to interact with other actors in the network. Recently…

There has been considerable interest in techniques for modelling student learning across practice problems to drive real-time adaptive learning, with particular focus on variants of the classic Bayesian Knowledge Tracing (BKT) model proposed by Corbett & Anderson, 1995. Over time researches have proposed many variants of BKT with…

Standard models for network meta-analysis simultaneously estimate multiple relative treatment effects. In practice, after estimation, these multiple estimates usually pass through a formal or informal selection procedure, eg, when researchers draw conclusions about the effects of the best performing treatment in the network. In this paper, we…

Despite decades of research, it has been difficult to achieve consensus on a definition of common learning disabilities such as dyslexia. This lack of consensus represents a fundamental problem for the field. Our approach to addressing this issue is to use model-based meta-analyses and Bayesian models with informative priors to combine the results…

We present the design of a citizen science system that uses machine learning to guide the presentation of image classification tasks to newcomers to help them more quickly learn how to do the task while still contributing to the work of the project. A Bayesian model for tracking volunteer learning for training with tasks with uncertain outcomes is…

Multilevel bifactor item response theory (IRT) models are commonly used to account for features of the data that are related to the sampling and measurement processes used to gather those data. These models conventionally make assumptions about the portions of the data structure that represent these features. Unfortunately, when data violate these…

In this article, we systematically introduce the just another Gibbs sampler (JAGS) software program to fit common Bayesian cognitive diagnosis models (CDMs) including the deterministic inputs, noisy "and" gate model; the deterministic inputs, noisy "or" gate model; the linear logistic model; the reduced reparameterized unified…

The number of articles showing dissatisfaction with the null hypothesis statistical testing (NHST) framework has been progressively increasing over the years. Alternatives to NHST have been proposed and the Bayesian approach seems to have achieved the highest amount of visibility. In this last part of the special issue, a few alternative…

During modern general election cycles, information to forecast the electoral outcome is plentiful. So-called fundamentals like economic growth provide information early in the cycle. Trial-heat polls become informative closer to Election Day. Our model builds on (Linzer, 2013) and is implemented in Stan (Team, 2020). We improve on the estimation…