Methods for group comparisons using predicted probabilities and marginal effects on probabilities are developed for regression models for binary outcomes. Unlike approaches based on the comparison of regression coefficients across groups, the methods we propose are unaffected by the scalar identification of the coefficients and are expressed in…

This study explores the usefulness of covariates on equating test scores from nonequivalent test groups. The covariates are captured by an estimated propensity score, which is used as a proxy for latent ability to balance the test groups. The objective is to assess the sensitivity of the equated scores to various misspecifications in the…

One common score reported from diagnostic classification assessments is the vector of posterior means of the skill mastery indicators. As with any assessment, it is important to derive and report estimates of the reliability of the reported scores. After reviewing a reliability measure suggested by Templin and Bradshaw, this article suggests three…

To design and improve instruction in mathematical proof, mathematics educators require an adequate definition of proof that is faithful to mathematical practice and relevant to pedagogical situations. In both mathematics education and the philosophy of mathematics, mathematical proof is typically defined as a type of justification that satisfies a…

In this paper we use historic score-reporting records and test-taker metadata to inform data-driven recommendations that support international students in their choice of undergraduate institutions for study in the United States. We investigate the use of Structural Topic Modeling (STM) as a context-aware, probabilistic recommendation method that…

Although collecting data from multiple informants is highly recommended, methods to model the congruence and incongruence between informants are limited. Bauer and colleagues suggested the trifactor model that decomposes the variances into common factor, informant perspective factors, and item-specific factors. This study extends their work to the…

Although the null hypothesis significance testing procedure is problematic, many still favor the use of "p"-values as indicating the state of evidence against the model used to generate the "p"-value. From this perspective, "p"-values benefit science; or would benefit science if used correctly. In contrast, the novel…

In analyzing data from attitude surveys, it is common to consider the "don't know" responses as missing values. In this article, we present a statistical model commonly used for the analysis of responses/evaluations expressed on Likert scales and extended to take into account the presence of don't know responses. The main objective is to…

Individuals draw conclusions about possibilities from assertions that make no explicit reference to them. The model theory postulates that assertions such as disjunctions refer to possibilities. Hence, a disjunction of the sort, "A or B or both," where "A" and "B" are sensible clauses, yields mental models of an…

Respondent-driven sampling (RDS), a link-tracing sampling and inference method for studying hard-to-reach populations, has been shown to produce asymptotically unbiased population estimates when its assumptions are satisfied. However, some of the assumptions are prohibitively difficult to reach in the field, and the violation of a crucial…

Hinterecker, Knauff, and Johnson-Laird (2016) compared the adequacy of the probabilistic new paradigm in reasoning with the recent revision of mental models theory (MMT) for explaining a novel class of inferences containing the modal term "possibly." For example, "the door is closed or the window is open or both," therefore,…

The Schwarz or Bayesian information criterion (BIC) is one of the most widely used tools for model comparison in social science research. The BIC, however, is not suitable for evaluating models with order constraints on the parameters of interest. This article explores two extensions of the BIC for evaluating order-constrained models, one where a…

Educational resources can be easily found on the Web. Most search engines base their algorithms on a resource's text or popularity, requiring teachers to navigate the results until they find an appropriate resource. This makes searching for resources a tedious and cumbersome task. Specialized repositories contain resources that are annotated with…

Some IRT models can be equivalently modeled in alternative frameworks such as logistic regression. Logistic regression can also model time-to-event data, which concerns the probability of an event occurring over time. Using the relation between time-to-event models and logistic regression and the relation between logistic regression and IRT, this…

Objective: This study examines how accurately a small set of short-term academic indicators can approximate long-term outcomes of community college students so that decision-makers can take informed actions based on those indicators to evaluate the current progress of large-scale reform efforts on long-term outcomes, which in practice will not be…