Pseudo Bayes probability estimates are weighted averages of raw and modeled probabilities; these estimates have been studied primarily in nonpsychometric contexts. The purpose of this study was to evaluate pseudo Bayes probability estimates as applied to the estimation of psychometric test score distributions and chained equipercentile equating…

Continuous exponential families are applied to linking forms via a single-group design. In this application, a distribution from the continuous bivariate exponential family is used that has selected moments that match those of the bivariate distribution of scores on the forms to be linked. The selected continuous bivariate distribution then yields…

This paper provides a history of ETS's role in developing assessment instruments and psychometric procedures for measuring change in large-scale national assessments funded by the Longitudinal Studies branch of the National Center for Education Statistics. It documents the innovations developed during more than 30 years of working with…

In survey research, sometimes the formation of groupings, or aggregations of cases on which to make an inference, are of importance. Of particular interest are the situations where the cases aggregated carry useful information that has been transferred from a sample employed in a previous study. For example, a school to be included in the sample…

Xu and von Davier (2006) demonstrated the feasibility of using the general diagnostic model (GDM) to analyze National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP) proficiency data. Their work showed that the GDM analysis not only led to conclusions for gender and race groups similar to those published in the NAEP Report Card, but also allowed…

This paper introduces multilevel extensions for the general diagnostic model (GDM) following recent developments on extensions of latent class analysis (LCA) to hierarchical models. The GDM is based on LCA as well as discrete latent trait models and may be viewed as a general modeling framework for conrmatory multidimensional item response models.…

Three strategies for linking two consecutive assessments are investigated and compared by analyzing reading data for the National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP) using the general diagnostic model. These strategies are compared in terms of marginal and joint expectations of skills, joint probabilities of skill patterns, and item…

Multinomial-response models are available that correspond implicitly to tests in which a total score is computed as the sum of polytomous item scores. For these models, joint and conditional estimation may be considered in much the same way as for the Rasch model for right-scored tests. As in the Rasch model, joint estimation is only attractive if…

Bayesian network models offer a large degree of flexibility for modeling dependence among observables (item outcome variables) from the same task that may be dependent. This paper explores four design patterns for modeling locally dependent observations from the same task: (1) No context--Ignore dependence among observables; (2) Compensatory…

This paper describes the development, implementation, and evaluation of an automated system for predicting the acceptability status of candidate reading-comprehension stimuli extracted from a database of journal and magazine articles. The system uses a combination of classification and regression techniques to predict the probability that a given…