Predictive analytics is widely used in various domains, including education, to inform decision-making and improve outcomes. However, many predictive models are proprietary and inaccessible for evaluation or modification by researchers and practitioners, limiting their accountability and ethical design. Moreover, predictive models are often opaque…

The clustered observational study (COS) design is the observational study counterpart to the clustered randomized trial. In a COS, a treatment is assigned to intact groups, and all units within the group are exposed to the treatment. However, the treatment is non-randomly assigned. COSs are common in both education and health services research. In…

Mixed Membership Models (MMMs) are a popular family of latent structure models for complex multivariate data. Instead of forcing each subject to belong to a single cluster, MMMs incorporate a vector of subject-specific weights characterizing partial membership across clusters. With this flexibility come challenges in uniquely identifying,…

In this paper, we provide an introduction to the factored regression framework. This modeling framework applies the rules of probability to break up or "factor" a complex joint distribution into a product of conditional regression models. Using this framework, we can easily specify the complex multivariate models that missing data…

We describe a data mining pipeline to convert data from educational systems into knowledge component (KC) models. In contrast to other approaches, our approach employs and compares multiple model search methodologies (e.g., sparse factor analysis, covariance clustering) within a single pipeline. In this preliminary work, we describe our approach's…

Consistency of learning behaviors is known to play an important role in learners' engagement in a course and impact their learning outcomes. Despite significant advances in the area of learning analytics (LA) in measuring various self-regulated learning behaviors, using LA to measure consistency of online course engagement patterns remains largely…

Recent work on measuring growth with categorical outcome variables has combined the item response theory (IRT) measurement model with the latent growth curve (LGC) model (e.g., McArdle, 1988) and extended the assessment of growth to multidimensional IRT models (e.g., Hsieh, von Eye, & Maier, 2010; Huang, 2013) and higher-order IRT models…

Recent work in predictive modeling has called for increased scrutiny of how models generalize between different populations within the training data. Using interaction data from 69,174 students who used an online mathematics platform over an entire school year, we trained a sensor-free affect detection model and studied its generalizability to…

Growth curve models are widely used for investigating growth and change phenomena. Many studies in social and behavioral sciences have demonstrated that data without any outlying observation are rather an exception, especially for data collected longitudinally. Ignoring the existence of outlying observations may lead to inaccurate or even…

This review introduces classical item response theory (IRT) models as well as more contemporary extensions to the case of multilevel, multidimensional, and mixtures of discrete and continuous latent variables through the lens of discrete multivariate analysis. A general modeling framework is discussed, and the applications of this framework in…

Millions of adults in the United States lack the necessary literacy skills for most living wage jobs. For students from adult learning classes, we used a lexical decision task to measure their knowledge of words and we used a decision-making model (Ratcliff's, 1978, diffusion model) to abstract the mechanisms underlying their performance from…

We explored the usefulness of 1st and 2nd grade reading measures and responsiveness criteria collected within a Response-to-Intervention (RtI) framework for predicting Reading Disability (RD) in 3rd grade. We used existing data from 387 linguistically diverse students who had participated in a longitudinal RtI study. Model-based predictors of RD…