Tuberculosis (TB) is a potentially fatal disease spread by an airborne pathogen infecting approximately one third of the globe. For decades, contact tracing (CT) has served a key role in the control of TB and many other notifiable communicable diseases. Unfortunately, CT is a labor-intensive and time-consuming process and is often conducted by a…

[Correction Notice: An erratum for this article was reported in Vol 119(2) of Psychological Review (see record 2012-06153-001). In the article, incorrect versions of figures 3 and 6 were included. Also, Table 8 should have included the following information in the table footnote "P(A V) = probability of acquittal given unanimous verdict." All…

Second-order latent growth curve models (S. C. Duncan & Duncan, 1996; McArdle, 1988) can be used to study group differences in change in latent constructs. We give exact formulas for the covariance matrix of the parameter estimates and an algebraic expression for the estimation of slope differences. Formulas for calculations of the required sample…

The work of R. MacCallum et al. (1992) was extended by examining chance modifications through a Monte Carlo simulation. The stability of post hoc model modifications was examined under varying sample size, model complexity, and severity of misspecification using 2- and 4-factor oblique confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) models with four and eight…

This study integrates into one comprehensive Monte Carlo simulation a vast array of previously defined and substantively interrelated research studies of the robustness of analysis of variance (ANOVA) and analysis of covariance (ANCOVA) statistical procedures. Three sets of balanced ANOVA and ANCOVA designs (group sizes of 15, 30, and 45) and one…

This article describes a monte carlo computer simulation of affirmative action employment policies. The counterintuitive results of the model are explained through a thought device involving urns and marbles. States that such model simulations have implications for social policy. (BSR)

The challenges of modeling students' performance in simulation-based assessments include accounting for multiple aspects of knowledge and skill that arise in different situations and the conditional dependencies among multiple aspects of performance in a complex assessment. This paper describes a Bayesian approach to modeling and estimating…

Discussion of the use of computer simulation in the social sciences highlights types of simulation strategies and their combinations in comprehensive simulations. The strengths and weaknesses of simulations as instructional and research tools are examined, examples are given, and design issues arising in each type are explored. (29 references)…

In this article, the author discusses the use in policy analysis of models that incorporate uncertainty. He believes that all models should consider incorporating uncertainty, but that at the same time it is important to understand that sampling variability is not usually the dominant driver of uncertainty in policy analyses. He also argues that…

This third of three volumes reports on analytic procedures conducted to address various aspects of the scalar properties of the Device Effectiveness Forecasting Technique (DEFT). DEFT, a series of microcomputer programs applied to data gathered from rating scales, is used to evaluate simulator devices used in U.S. Army weapons training. The…