During modern general election cycles, information to forecast the electoral outcome is plentiful. So-called fundamentals like economic growth provide information early in the cycle. Trial-heat polls become informative closer to Election Day. Our model builds on (Linzer, 2013) and is implemented in Stan (Team, 2020). We improve on the estimation…

With the expeditious advancement of information technologies, health-related data presented unprecedented potentials for medical and health discoveries but at the same time significant challenges for machine learning techniques both in terms of size and complexity. Those challenges include: the structured data with various storage formats and…

Intrusion detection is difficult to accomplish when attempting to employ current methodologies when considering the database and the authorized entity. It is a common understanding that current methodologies focus on the network architecture rather than the database, which is not an adequate solution when considering the insider threat. Recent…

Cognitive control enables flexible interaction with a dynamic environment. In 2 experiments, the authors investigated control adjustments in the stop-signal paradigm, a procedure that requires balancing speed (going) and caution (stopping) in a dual-task environment. Focusing on the slowing of go reaction times after stop signals, the authors…

Polynomial loglinear models for one-, two-, and higher-way contingency tables have important applications to measurement and assessment. They are essentially regarded as a smoothing technique, which is commonly referred to as loglinear smoothing. A SAS IML (SAS Institute, 2002a) macro was created to implement loglinear smoothing according to…

A central puzzle for theories of choice is that people's preferences between options can be reversed by the presence of decoy options (that are not chosen) or by the presence of other irrelevant options added to the choice set. Three types of reversal effect reported in the decision-making literature, the attraction, compromise, and similarity…

Testlet effects can be taken into account by incorporating specific dimensions in addition to the general dimension into the item response theory model. Three such multidimensional models are described: the bi-factor model, the testlet model, and a second-order model. It is shown how the second-order model is formally equivalent to the testlet…

Within the theoretical framework of knowledge space theory, a probabilistic skill multimap model for assessing learning processes is proposed. The learning process of a student is modeled as a function of the student's knowledge and of an educational intervention on the attainment of specific skills required to solve problems in a knowledge…

A new process model of the interplay between memory and judgment processes was recently suggested, assuming that retrieval fluency--that is, the speed with which objects are recognized--will determine inferences concerning such objects in a single-cue fashion. This aspect of the fluency heuristic, an extension of the recognition heuristic, has…

We present a view of knowledge construction processes, focusing on partially correct constructs. Motivated by unexpected and seemingly inconsistent quantitative data based on the written reports of students working on an elementary probability task, we analyze in detail the knowledge construction processes of a representative student. We show how…

This article proposes a procedure, based on a global statistic, for assessing intra-individual consistency in a test-retest design with a short-term retest interval. The procedure is developed within the framework of parametric item response theory, and the statistic is a likelihood-based measure that can be considered as an extension of the…

In exemplar models of phonology, phonotactic constraints are modeled as emergent from patterns of high activation between units that co-occur with statistical regularity, or as patterns of low activation or inhibition between units that co-occur less frequently or not at all. Exemplar models posit no a "priori" formal or representational…

Speakers frequently make subject-verb number agreement errors in the presence of a local noun with a different number from the head of the subject phrase. A series of four experiments used a two-choice response time (RT) paradigm to investigate how the latency of correct agreement decisions is modulated by the presence of a number attractor, and…

RTI as a framework for decision making has implications for the diagnosis of specific learning disabilities. Any diagnostic tool must meet certain standards to demonstrate that its use leads to predictable decisions with minimal risk. Classification agreement analyses are described as optimal for demonstrating the technical adequacy of RTI…

This article presents a dual system model (DSM) of decision making under risk and uncertainty according to which the value of a gamble is a combination of the values assigned to it independently by the affective and deliberative systems. On the basis of research on dual process theories and empirical research in Hsee and Rottenstreich (2004) and…