Background: For decades, education researchers have relied on the work of Campbell, Cook, and Shadish to help guide their thinking about valid impact estimates in the social sciences (Campbell & Stanley, 1963; Shadish et al., 2002). The foundation of this work is the "validity typology" and its associated "threats to…

Since 2018, institutions of higher education have been aware of the "enrollment cliff" which refers to expected declines in future enrollment. This paper attempts to describe how prepared institutions in Ohio are for this future by looking at trends leading up to the anticipated decline. Using IPEDS data from 2012-2022, we analyze trends…

Given the rapid adoption of machine learning methods by education researchers, and the growing acknowledgment of their inherent risks, there is an urgent need for tailored methodological guidance on how to improve and evaluate the validity of inferences drawn from these methods. Drawing on an integrative literature review and extending a…

When fitting unidimensional item response theory (IRT) models, the population distribution of the latent trait ([theta]) is often assumed to be normally distributed. However, some psychological theories would suggest a nonnormal [theta]. For example, some clinical traits (e.g., alcoholism, depression) are believed to follow a positively skewed…

The purpose of this paper is to highlight issues related to students' personal inferences that arise when students verbally explain their justification for calculus statements. We conducted clinical interviews with three undergraduate students who had taken first-semester calculus but had not yet been exposed to formal proof writing activities…

Despite the critical role of emotions in multicultural teacher education, no attempt has been made to develop an instrument including affect as a dimension in measuring cultural competence for preservice teachers. To bridge this gap, the present three-study research used three distinct samples of 456 preservice teachers to develop and estimate the…

Hinterecker, Knauff, and Johnson-Laird (2016) compared the adequacy of the probabilistic new paradigm in reasoning with the recent revision of mental models theory (MMT) for explaining a novel class of inferences containing the modal term "possibly." For example, "the door is closed or the window is open or both," therefore,…

Despite the call for an argument-based approach to validity over 25 years ago, few examples exist in the published literature. One possible explanation for this outcome is that the complexity of the argument-based approach makes implementation difficult. To counter this claim, we propose that the Assessment Triangle can serve as the overarching…

We report 3 experiments investigating novel sorts of inference, such as: A or B or both. Therefore, possibly (A and B). Where the contents were sensible assertions, for example, "Space tourism will achieve widespread popularity in the next 50 years or advances in material science will lead to the development of antigravity materials in the…

Background: Validity is a notable concept in language testing which has concerned many researchers and scholars in the field of language testing due to its importance in decision making process. Tests' results always introduce consequences to test takers' lives which emphasizes the need to ensure their validity. Detecting and delineating the…

Assessing complex constructs such as those discussed under the umbrella of 21st century constructs highlights the need for a principled assessment design and validation approach. In our discussion, we made a case for three considerations: (a) taking construct complexity into account across various stages of assessment development such as the…

The argument-based approach to validation involves two steps; specification of the proposed interpretations and uses of the test scores as an interpretive argument, and the evaluation of the plausibility of the proposed interpretive argument. More ambitious interpretations and uses tend to involve an extended network of inferences and assumptions…

Modeling using mathematics and making inferences about mathematical situations are becoming more prevalent in most fields of study. Descriptive statistics cannot be used to generalize about a population or make predictions of what can occur. Instead, inference must be used. Simulation and sampling are essential in building a foundation for…

The report is the first systematic evaluation of the sentence equivalence item type introduced by the "GRE"® revised General Test. We adopt a validity framework to guide our investigation based on Kane's approach to validation whereby a hierarchy of inferences that should be documented to support score meaning and interpretation is…

A key question facing teacher evaluation systems is how to combine multiple measures of complex constructs into composite indicators of performance. We use data from the Measures of Effective Teaching (MET) study to investigate the measurement properties of composite indicators obtained under various conjunctive, disjunctive (or complementary),…