Mental model (Johnson-Laird, 2001) and probabilistic theories (Oaksford & Chater, 2009) claim to provide distinct explanations of human reasoning. However, the dual strategy model of reasoning suggests that this distinction corresponds to different reasoning strategies, termed "counterexample" and "statistical,"…

Individuals draw conclusions about possibilities from assertions that make no explicit reference to them. The model theory postulates that assertions such as disjunctions refer to possibilities. Hence, a disjunction of the sort, "A or B or both," where "A" and "B" are sensible clauses, yields mental models of an…

Hinterecker, Knauff, and Johnson-Laird (2016) compared the adequacy of the probabilistic new paradigm in reasoning with the recent revision of mental models theory (MMT) for explaining a novel class of inferences containing the modal term "possibly." For example, "the door is closed or the window is open or both," therefore,…

Constructing scientific arguments is an important practice for students because it helps them to make sense of data using scientific knowledge and within the conceptual and experimental boundaries of an investigation. In this study, we used a text mining method called Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA) to identify underlying patterns in students…

Explanations of phenomena in chemistry are grounded in discussions of particulate-level behavior, but there are limitations to focusing on single particles, or as an extension, viewing a group of particles as displaying uniform behavior. More sophisticated models of physical processes evoke considerations related to the dynamic nature of bulk…

Automatic answer assessment systems typically apply semantic similarity methods where student responses are compared with some reference answers in order to access their correctness. But student responses in dialogue based tutoring systems are often grammatically and semantically incomplete and additional information (e.g., dialogue history) is…

We report 3 experiments investigating novel sorts of inference, such as: A or B or both. Therefore, possibly (A and B). Where the contents were sensible assertions, for example, "Space tourism will achieve widespread popularity in the next 50 years or advances in material science will lead to the development of antigravity materials in the…

The Einstein-First project approaches the teaching of Einsteinian physics through the use of physical models and analogies. This paper presents an approach to the teaching of quantum physics which begins by emphasising the particle-nature of light through the use of toy projectiles to represent photons. This allows key concepts including the…

Plausibility judgments rarely have been addressed empirically in conceptual change research. Recent research, however, suggests that these judgments may be pivotal to conceptual change about certain topics where a gap exists between what scientists and laypersons find plausible. Based on a philosophical and empirical foundation, this article…

A Bayesian network (BN) is a graphical model of uncertainty that is especially well suited to legal arguments. It enables us to visualize and model dependencies between different hypotheses and pieces of evidence and to calculate the revised probability beliefs about all uncertain factors when any piece of new evidence is presented. Although BNs…

The overall direction of this research is to improve the development of information systems within federal agency modernization efforts so that the systems produce a value to the federal agency that is significantly greater upon implementation than the investment required to develop the systems. Federal agencies are modernizing at an increasing…

Two experiments investigated how people perform category-based induction for items that have uncertain categorization. Whereas normative considerations suggest that people should consider multiple relevant categories, much past research has argued that people focus on only the most likely category. A new method is introduced in which responses on…

We formalize and provide tests of a set of logical-rule models for predicting perceptual classification response times (RTs) and choice probabilities. The models are developed by synthesizing mental-architecture, random-walk, and decision-bound approaches. According to the models, people make independent decisions about the locations of stimuli…

From a contemporary perspective on cognition, the between-persons variables in trait-based arguments in educational assessment are absurd over-simplifications. Yet, for a wide range of applications, they work. Rather than seeing such variables as independently-existing characteristics of people, we can view them as summaries of patterns in…

In building intelligent tutoring systems, it is critical to be able to understand and diagnose student responses in interactive problem solving. However, building this understanding into a computer-based intelligent tutor is a time-intensive process usually conducted by subject experts. Much of this time is spent in building production rules that…