Longitudinal studies including a time-to-event outcome in social research often use a form of event history analysis to analyse the influence of time-varying endogenous covariates on the time-to-event outcome. Many standard event history models however assume the covariates of interest to be exogenous and inclusion of an endogenous covariate may…

Background/Context: Predictive analytics has emerged as an indispensable tool in the education sector, offering insights that can improve student outcomes and inform more equitable policies (Friedler et al., 2019; Kleinberg et al., 2018). However, the widespread adoption of predictive models is hindered by several challenges, including the lack of…

Mediation analysis is widely applied in various fields of science, such as psychology, epidemiology, and sociology. In practice, many psychological and behavioral phenomena are dynamic, and the corresponding mediation effects are expected to change over time. However, most existing mediation methods assume a static mediation effect over time,…

Mediation analysis is widely applied in various fields of science, such as psychology, epidemiology, and sociology. In practice, many psychological and behavioral phenomena are dynamic, and the corresponding mediation effects are expected to change over time. However, most existing mediation methods assume a static mediation effect over time,…

The use of Bayesian Knowledge Tracing (BKT) models in predicting student learning and mastery, especially in mathematics, is a well-established and proven approach in learning analytics. In this work, we report on our analysis examining the generalizability of BKT models across academic years attributed to "detector rot." We compare the…

The analysis of cross-lagged relationships is a popular approach in prevention research to explore the dynamics between constructs over time. However, a limitation of commonly used cross-lagged models is the requirement of equally spaced measurement occasions that prevents the usage of flexible longitudinal designs and complicates cross-study…

The detection of differential item functioning (DIF) is important in psychological and behavioral sciences. Standard DIF detection methods perform an item-by-item test iteratively, often assuming that all items except the one under investigation are DIF-free. This article proposes a Bayesian adaptive Lasso method to detect DIF in graded response…

Latent growth models (LGMs) are an application of structural equation modeling and frequently used in developmental and clinical research to analyze change over time in longitudinal outcomes. Maximum likelihood (ML), the most common approach for estimating LGMs, can fail to converge or may produce biased estimates in complex LGMs especially in…

Purpose: We present functional logistic mixed-effects models (FLMEMs) for estimating population and individual-level learning curves in longitudinal experiments. Method: Using functional analysis tools in a Bayesian hierarchical framework, the FLMEM captures nonlinear, smoothly varying learning curves, appropriately accommodating uncertainty in…

In this article, we systematically introduce the just another Gibbs sampler (JAGS) software program to fit common Bayesian cognitive diagnosis models (CDMs) including the deterministic inputs, noisy "and" gate model; the deterministic inputs, noisy "or" gate model; the linear logistic model; the reduced reparameterized unified…

Piecewise GMM with unknown turning points is a new procedure to investigate heterogeneous subpopulations' growth trajectories consisting of distinct developmental phases. Unlike the conventional PGMM, which relies on theory or experiment design to specify turning points a priori, the new procedure allows for an optimal location of turning points…

Despite broad applications of growth curve models, few studies have dealt with a practical issue -- nonnormality of data. Previous studies have used Student's "t" distributions to remedy the nonnormal problems. In this study, robust distributional growth curve models are proposed from a semiparametric Bayesian perspective, in which…

This article presents a multilevel longitudinal nested logit model for analyzing correct response and error types in multilevel longitudinal intervention data collected under a pretest-posttest, cluster randomized trial design. The use of the model is illustrated with a real data analysis, including a model comparison study regarding model…

Growth curve models are widely used in social and behavioral sciences. However, typical growth curve models often assume that the errors are normally distributed although non-normal data may be even more common than normal data. In order to avoid possible statistical inference problems in blindly assuming normality, a general Bayesian framework is…

A family of learning models that integrates a cognitive diagnostic model and a higher-order, hidden Markov model in one framework is proposed. This new framework includes covariates to model skill transition in the learning environment. A Bayesian formulation is adopted to estimate parameters from a learning model. The developed methods are…