An estimated 1,400 colleges and universities nationwide have invested in predictive analytics technology to identify which students are at risk of failing courses or dropping out, with spending estimated in the hundreds of millions of dollars. How accurate and stable are those predictions? The authors put six predictive models to the test to gain…

Objective: This study examines how accurately a small set of short-term academic indicators can approximate long-term outcomes of community college students so that decision-makers can take informed actions based on those indicators to evaluate the current progress of large-scale reform efforts on long-term outcomes, which in practice will not be…

Background: The importance of high school completion for jobs and postsecondary opportunities is well- documented. Combined with federal laws where high school graduation rate is a core performance indicator, school systems and states face pressure to actively monitor and assess high school completion. This proposal employs machine learning…

We examined summary indices of high school performance (coursework, grades, and test scores) based on the graded response model (GRM). The indices varied by inclusion of ACT test scores and whether high school courses were constrained to have the same difficulty and discrimination across groups of schools. The indices were examined with respect to…

Determining which students are at risk of poorer outcomes -- such as dropping out, failing classes, or decreasing standardized examination scores -- has become an important area of research and practice in both K-12 and higher education. The detectors produced from this type of predictive modeling research are increasingly used in early warning…

Purpose: This study assessed and demonstrated the efficacy of two select empirical forecast models (i.e., autoregressive integrated moving average [ARIMA] model vs. grey model [GM]) in accurately predicting state vocational rehabilitation agency (SVRA) rehabilitation success rate trends across six different racial and ethnic population cohorts…

This year's study is the 35th in a series of annual reports on trends in dropout and attrition rates in Texas public schools. The 2019-20 study builds on a series of studies by the Intercultural Development Research Association (IDRA) that track the number and percent of students in Texas who are lost from public school enrollment prior to…

Background: Breast cancer (BC), the most common cancer diagnosed in women in the United States, is a heterogeneous disease in which age-specific incidence rates (ASIRs) differ by race and mortality rates are higher in blacks than whites. Goals: (i) understand the reasons for the black-to-white ethnic crossover in the ASIRs; (ii) formulate a…

This study analyzes the data collected through the Financial Literacy project conducted in the fall semester of 2010 at a land grant research university in the Midwest. A survey instrument, which includes 43 items that measure constructs such as parental influence, financial knowledge and behaviors, and working experience of students while…

We examined predictions derived from Valentine's (1991) Multidimensional Space (MDS) framework for own- and other-race face processing. A set of 20 computerized faces was generated from a single prototype. Each face was saved as Black and White, changing only skin tone, such that structurally identical faces were represented in both race…

We develop a model of induced innovation that applies to medical research. Our model yields three empirical predictions. First, initial death rates and subsequent research effort should be positively correlated. Second, research effort should be associated with more rapid mortality declines. Third, as a byproduct of targeting the most common…

Contemporary education is experiencing substantial reform across legislative, pedagogical, and assessment dimensions. The increase in school-based accountability systems has brought forth a culture where states, school districts, teachers, and individual students are required to demonstrate their efficacy towards improvement of the educational…

Children with learning disabilities (LD) makeup 50.5% of all children identified for special services in the schools. Research has found that children with LD have difficulties in areas of functioning related to social competence. This study is based on a risk and resilience model to explore external protective factors (friendships and social…

Among the many problems in interpreting the results of the experiment is the determination of what can be inferred from a limited duration experiment about the behavioral effects of a negative income tax. This paper examines and interprets experimental data based on the labor supply model. (Author/BP)

Two experiments involving 137 undergraduates tested the premise that the underlying stereotyping processes used by blacks and whites are similar. Findings suggest that the race of the perceiver may moderate the predictions of the complexity-extremity, assumed-characteristics, and expectancy-violation models. (SLD)