This paper attempts to quantify the accuracy limit of "nextitem-correct" prediction by using numerical optimization to estimate the student's probability of getting each question correct given a complete sequence of item responses. This optimization is performed without an explicit parameterized model of student behavior, but with the…

Contextualized items have been widely used in science testing. Despite common use of item contexts, how the influence of a chosen context on the reliability and validity of the score inferences remains unclear. We focused on sequential cues of contextual information, referring to the order of events or descriptions presented in item contexts. We…