Explains that from a prediction standpoint the confluence model is not very efficient. Very modest increments in accuracy are associated with family configuration variables once chronological age is covaried. Suggests that the major postulates of the theory be tested directly, within individuals and with longitudinal data. (Author/AS)

The purpose of this study was to compare five predictor models, including two least-square procedures, two probability weighting (semi-Bayesian) methods, and a Bayesian model developed by Lindley. (See also TM 501 088, TM 501 089, and TM 501 090) (Author/NE)

The results of a replication study are described that tested the predictive validity of a 34-item instrument designed to assess the fundamental constructs of Tinto's model of college student attrition. Potential institutional differences in faculty members' influence on retention were identified. (Author/MLW)

The merits of double exponential smoothing are discussed relative to other types of pattern-based enrollment forecasting methods. The basic assumptions and formulas for its use are outlined. The difficulties associated with selecting an appropriate weight factor are discussed, and the potential effect on prediction results is illustrated.…

Presents and tests the verbal-plan approach as a basis for predicting verbal behavior. (Defines verbal plan as "what an individual intends to say in a specific situation or a general situation.") (PD)

Presents evidence supporting the prediction that violations of induced receiver expectations and the intensity of a persuasive message are mediators of resistance to persuasion. Positive and negative violations of expectations are examined in terms of counterarguing. (JMF)

Argues that policymakers should be skeptical of forecasts that predict faculty shortages and surpluses according to population trends and analyzes an economic model of the academic labor market. Concludes that forecasts from such models do not support policies designed to offset the impact of cohort size on the academic labor market. (Author/CH)

Although Sense of Community (SOC) is usually defined as a multidimensional construct, most SOC scales are unidimensional. To reduce the split between theory and empirical research, the present work identifies a multifactor structure for the Italian Sense of Community Scale (ISCS) that has already been validated as a unitary index of SOC. This…

Earlier studies have suggested that higher education institutions could harness the predictive power of Learning Management System (LMS) data to develop reporting tools that identify at-risk students and allow for more timely pedagogical interventions. This paper confirms and extends this proposition by providing data from an international…

A study created and examined a new communication trait--the willingness to collaborate. The Willingness to Collaborate Trait Scale was created. Scale reliability was demonstrated through analysis of internal consistency of the 13-item scale. A communication trait model predictive of trait willingness to collaborate was tested using 401…

The conversion model of formal reasoning was examined for its ability to predict the decisions made by college students when solving concrete and abstract syllogisms. Results supported the model's contentions that reasoner's decisions reflect natural language processes in the encoding of syllogistic premises, and follow rationally from…

Tested a model of depression that included level of current problems and social problem solving. Path analysis of data from 205 undergraduates showed the model accounted for 42 percent of the variance associated with the prediction of depressive symptoms. (MCF)

Applied a logistic model to predict elderly patients' risk for discharge to nursing homes following hospitalization. Age was the only consistently strong predictor in the individualized models developed for each of four areas. (Author/JAC)